摘要
在构建中国式现代化各子系统的指标体系后,运用耦合协调度模型测算中国式现代化五个子系统的耦合协调性。基于LISA时空跃迁、冷热点分析及收敛模型,分析2010—2021年我国31个省(区、市)中国式现代化耦合协调性的时空演变特征及收敛性。研究发现:(1)中国式现代化耦合协调性呈现逐年递增的发展态势,但整体水平不高,仍处于勉强协调阶段,且在空间上差距较大,呈现出东高西低,南升北降的发展趋势,其耦合协调性的区域差异呈缩小趋势,且主要来自区域间差异。(2)中国式现代化耦合协调性的空间自相关性在不断增强,耦合协调性在空间上呈现出一定的转移惰性与路径依赖特征,多数省(区、市)未发生跃迁。(3)中国式现代化耦合协调性的冷点区主要集中在西北地区,而热点区主要集中在沿海地区,且随时间推移冷点区的范围逐渐缩小,显著性逐渐降低,热点区由东部地区逐渐向中西部地区扩张,显著性逐渐增强。(4)全国、东北地区、北部沿海地区、西北地区存在σ收敛现象,全国及八大经济区均存在绝对β收敛现象,但收敛速度存在差异,其中东北地区收敛速度最快。
After constructing the index system of each subsystem of Chinese modernization,the coupling coordination degree model is used to measure the coupling coordination of five subsystems of Chinese modernization.Based on LISA spatio-temporal transition,cold-hot spot analysis and convergence model,this paper analyzes spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and convergence of Chinese modernization coupling coordination in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2010 to 2021.The findings are as follows:(1)The coupling coordination of Chinese modernization shows an increasing development trend year by year,but the overall level is not high,and it is still in the stage of reluctant coordination,and the spatial gap is large,showing a development trend of high in the east and low in the west,rising in the south and falling in the north.The regional differences of its coupling coordination show a decreasing trend,mainly from inter-regional differences.(2)The spatial autocorrelation of the coupling coordination of Chinese modernization is continuously enhanced,and the coupled coordination shows certain transfer inertia and path dependence characteristics spatially,with most provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)not having transitioned.(3)The cold spots of the coupling coordination of Chinese modernization are mainly concentrated in the northwestern regions,while the hot spots are mainly concentrated in the coastal regions,and the hot spots gradually expand from the eastern region to the central and western regions,and the significance is gradually enhanced.(4)Theσconvergence exists in the whole country,the northeastern region,the northern coastal region,and the northwestern region,and absoluteβconvergence exists in the whole country and the eight economic zones.There are differences in the speed of convergence,with the northeastern region being the fastest.
作者
吴旭辉
WU Xuhui(Journal of Gansu Academy of Social Sciences,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070)
出处
《商学研究》
2024年第6期93-105,共13页
Commercial Science Research
基金
甘肃省软科学专项自选项目(24RZA131)。
关键词
中国式现代化
协调发展
时空演变
收敛性
Chinese modernization
coordinated development
spatio-temporal evolution
convergence
作者简介
吴旭辉(1992-),男,甘肃静宁人,编辑,研究方向为经济计量及其应用。
