摘要
【目的】粮食安全是保障国家安全的基础和社会经济稳定发展的前提。以“两藏”战略为指导,评估中国粮食主产区粮食综合生产潜力,可为国家粮食安全决策提供参考。【方法】本文利用第三次全国国土调查成果、面板数据、文献二手数据,测算现状粮食综合生产能力,评估耕地面积、复种指数、化肥施用、农业机械化、育种技术、农村劳动力老龄化、自然灾害7种因素对粮食生产的影响,预测2035年粮食主产区粮食综合生产潜力。【结果】①综合耕地资源本底与人为利用等影响粮食生产的直接因素构建了粮食综合生产潜力评估框架,并以此计算得出中国粮食主产区2035年粮食综合生产潜力预计达7.66亿t,是现状粮食综合生产能力的1.45倍。②粮食主产区各省份粮食综合生产潜力由高到低依次为黑龙江>河南>山东>河北>吉林>内蒙古>安徽>江苏>四川>湖南>辽宁>湖北>江西。③耕地面积增加、复种指数提升、化肥施用、农业机械化、育种技术、劳动力老龄化、自然灾害影响下的粮食增产潜力分别占粮食综合生产潜力的0.96%、0.45%、0.66%、2.58%、28.17%、1.32%和-2.90%。【结论】推动农作物品种改良与创新、提高农业机械化投入效率、增强农业防灾减灾救灾能力,应成为未来中国农业创新驱动转型、持续提升粮食综合生产能力的关键方向。
[Objective]Food security is the foundation for national security and a prerequisite for the stable development of the economy and society.Guided by the strategy of“Grain Storage in Land and Technology”,this study evaluated the comprehensive grain production capacity of major grain producing areas of China,providing a reference for national food security decision making.[Methods]This study employed data from the“Third National Land Survey”,panel data,literature reviews,and secondary resources to assess the current comprehensive grain production capacity,evaluated the impact of factors such as cultivated land area,multiple cropping index,fertilizer application,agricultural mechanization,breeding techniques,rural labor aging,and natural disasters,and predicted the comprehensive grain production capacity in 2035.[Results](1)An assessment framework for comprehensive grain production capacity was developed,taking into account key factors that directly affect grain production,such as cultivated land resources and human utilization.The comprehensive grain production capacity in China’s main grain producing areas is expected to reach 766 million tons in 2035,1.45 times the current capacity.(2)The ranking of grain production capacity of provinces from highest to lowest is as follows:Heilongjiang>Henan>Shandong>Hebei>Jilin>Inner Mongolia>Anhui>Jiangsu>Sichuan>Hunan>Liaoning>Hubei>Jiangxi.(3)The contributions of factors to the increasing production potential are as follows:cultivated land area(0.96%),multiple cropping index(0.45%),fertilizer application(0.66%),agricultural mechanization(2.58%),breeding techniques(28.17%),rural labor aging(1.32%),and natural disasters(-2.90%).[Conclusion]Promoting crop variety improvement and innovation,enhancing the efficiency of agricultural mechanization investments,and strengthening agricultural disaster prevention,reduction,and relief capabilities should be key directions for China’s future innovation-driven transformation of agriculture and continuous improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity.
作者
王蕴潞
王萍
翟腾腾
寇雯红
WANG Yunlu;WANG Ping;ZHAI Tengteng;KOU Wenhong(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,China;Donggang Branch of Rizhao Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning,Rizhao 276819,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第12期2367-2383,共17页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(41701238)
山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2024MD086)。
关键词
“两藏”战略
粮食生产潜力
粮食主产区
粮食安全
评估
“Grain Storage in Land and Technology”strategy
grain production capacity
major grain producing areas
food security
assessment
作者简介
王蕴潞,女,山东烟台人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土地利用管理。E-mail:1037764257@qq.com;通讯作者:王萍,女,山东潍坊人,博士,副教授,研究方向为国土空间规划与生态保护。E-mail:wpqfnu@qfnu.edu.cn。
