摘要
基于决策者对风险的不同态度以及决策会受到人有限理性等复杂心理机制的影响,针对选取决策方案时所带来的区间数排序问题提出两种区间数排序方法。首先引入双参数来代表决策者的风险偏好以及衡量该决策者为了目标所作出的让步,由此给出一个全序来对区间数进行比较,且参数通过极大熵选取也使得排序方法较为科学合理;接着引入前景理论来体现决策者在不确定性情况下,非理性心理对于决策的影响并给出区间数排序的第二种方法。最后,通过既有案例来对已有的区间数排序方法与所提方法进行比较分析,验证了第一种双参数法在改变不同的参数后,能够包两种方法所得到的结果,从而双参数法应用更为广泛;第二种前景理论方法考虑了人们面临得失时的心理行为,决策结果更符合实际。
Based on the different attitudes of decision makers toward risk and the fact that decisions can be influenced by complex psychological mechanisms such as limited human rationality,this paper proposes two interval number ranking methods for the interval number ranking problem arising from the selection of decision options.First,a two-parameter approach is introduced to represent the risk preferences of the decision maker and to measure the concessions made by the decision maker for the goal,thus giving a full order to compare the number of intervals,and the parameters are selected by great entropy to make the ranking method scientific and reasonable.Then the prospect theory is introduced to reflect the influence of irrational psychology on decision making under uncertainty and a second method of ranking interval numbers is given.Finally,the existing interval number ranking methods are compared and analyzed with the method proposed in this paper through the existing cases,and it is verified that the first two-parameter method can contain the results obtained by the two existing methods listed in this paper after changing different parameters,so that the twoparameter method is more widely used;the second prospect theory method takes into account the psychological behavior of people when they face gains and losses,and the decision results are more in line with the reality.
作者
李慧云
叶国菊
刘尉
赵大方
郭雅婷
史芳芳
LI Huiyun;YE Guoju;LIU Wei;ZHAO Dafang;GUO Yating;SHI Fangfang(Danyang High School of Jiangsu Province,Zhenjiang 212000;School of Mathematics,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hubei Normal University,Huangshi 435000)
出处
《工程数学学报》
北大核心
2025年第1期127-138,共12页
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508100)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20180500)
湖北省教育厅重点项目(D20192501)
江苏省市场监督管理局科技计划(KJ207559)。
关键词
区间数排序
风险偏好
非理性因素
决策
前景理论
interval number ranking
risk preferences
irrational behaviors
decision-making
prospect theory
作者简介
李慧云(1998-),女,硕士.研究方向:不确定优化与决策。
