摘要
根据元胞自动机的基本原理,结合云图发展、移动、衰减的特征,提出了一个新的基于元胞自动机的云图短时预测方法。该方法将网格化的云图像素点作为元胞空间的基本单元,邻居定义为摩尔型。通过制定云图像素点的移动、发展和衰减的转换规则,预测短时(12 h内)的云图。试验表明,这种新方法的预测云图与实测云图的基本特征比较相似,特别是预测的整体范围和变化趋势效果较好。
A newshort-term cloud forecast model,based on Cellular Automata method,is studied by the variation features of cloud. The cloud grid is the basic unit of cellular space,Neighbor is defined as Moore. The future 12 h cloud forecast is maded by the cloud movement and development of transformation rules formulated.The newcloud forecast model was verified by independent samples and the results showthat the forecast results are similar with observed cloud pictures in the basic features,especially in the whole range and change trend.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期1186-1190,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
云图预测
元胞自动机
转换规则
Cloud forecast
Cellular Automata
Transformation rule
