摘要
目的研究其他感染性腹泻发病与气象因素的关联性,分析不同气象因素对其他感染性腹泻的影响及其滞后效应,为调整防控措施提供科学依据。方法利用嘉峪关市2008—2016年其他感染性腹泻发病人数,结合同期气象资料,包括气温、气压、相对湿度、风速等,用广义相加模型结合分布滞后非线性模型探讨不同气象指标对其他感染性腹泻发病的影响。结果嘉峪关市其他感染性腹泻发病时间分布呈明显的季节周期性变化,6—8月出现高峰,其余月份发病例数较少;气象因素在不同滞后日与其他感染性腹泻的关联呈非线性,气温与其他感染性腹泻的风险效应呈正向关联,以日均气温8.50℃为参照,气温为33℃、滞后14d时RR值最高,为7.73(P<0.01)。风速和相对湿度与其他感染性腹泻的风险效应呈负向关联,滞后0d时RR值的95%CI下限均小于1,无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论气温可能是嘉峪关市其他感染性腹泻暴发的重要原因之一,对其他感染性腹泻在人群中的发生和流行发挥重要作用,通过改善居民生活习惯与易感人群自身体质,可间接影响其他感染性腹泻在人群中的分布。
Objective To study the correlation between meteorological factors and the onset of other infectious diarrhea,analyze the effect of different meteorological factors on other infectious diarrhea and specify the distribution of the lag effects,provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods The data of patients with other infectious diarrhea in Jiayuguan during 2008 and 2016 was used in combination with the corresponding meteorological data,including temperature,pressure,relative humidity and wind speed.The generalized additive model(GAM)combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to explore the impacts of different meteorological indexes on the onset of other infectious diarrhea.Results The distribution of the onset of other infectious diarrhea in Jiayuguan showed apparent seasonal periodic change and during June and August was peak,and the onsets in other months were fewer;the correlation between meteorological factors and other infectious diarrhea on different lags was nonlinear;temperature was positively correlated to the risk effect of other infectious diarrhea with daily average temperature 8.50℃as a reference;when temperature was 33℃and the number of lags was 14 d,the RR value was the highest,the value was 7.73(P<0.01).Wind speed and relative humidity were negatively correlated to the risk effect of other infectious diarrhea.When the number of lags was 0 d,the 95%CI lower limit of the RR value was below 1,there were no statistical significance(P>0.05).Conclusion Temperature may be one of the important causes for the onset of other infectious diarrhea in Jiayuguan.It plays an important role in the occurrence and prevalence of other infectious diarrhea in the population.It can indirectly affect the distribution of other infectious diarrhea by improving residents’living habits and physique of susceptible population.
作者
李世雄
王玉明
董继元
LI Shi-xiong;WANG Yu-ming;DONG Ji-yuan(Jiayuguan Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control,JiaYuguan,Gansu 735100,China;School of Public Health,Lanzhou University)
出处
《中国公共卫生管理》
2019年第2期157-159,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health Management
基金
嘉峪关市科技计划项目(17-66)
关键词
气象因素
其他感染性腹泻
滞后
效应
meteorological factors
other infectious diarrhea
lag
effects
作者简介
李世雄(1985-),男,甘肃嘉峪关人,硕士,主治医师。研究方向:环境与健康;通信作者:董继元,E-mail address:yuiopdongjiyuan@163.com。
