摘要
在高强度人类活动与全球气候变化的双重影响下,近海生态系统的健康状况不断恶化,有害藻华的频繁暴发甚至对人体健康构成威胁。基于二十多年来对海洋暖化和酸化、极端天气条件、污染或栖息地丢失等因素对海洋生态系统影响的研究,发达国家加快了生态预报研究的步伐,致力于实现咸淡水环境中关键有害藻种群的实时预警预报。本文通过梳理近海生态环境预报的机遇与挑战,聚焦近海有害藻华问题,并将其与淡水体系进行比较,发现二者都面临观测的时间分辨率过低、诱导有害藻华暴发多元因子观测的空间覆盖度有限的双重挑战,亟待补齐原位观测传感器、自动采样分析装置、高光谱遥感等多维度高时空分辨观测的高新技术短板,融入多源数据时空重建,推进人工智能赋能的有害藻华预报模型的发展。本文建议,由交叉科学部牵头,与涉海部委和沿海地区合作,共建近海有害藻华观测与预报网等大科学基础设施,深化国际合作,推动我国近海藻华灾害预警预报的业务化进程。该设施应优先布局有害藻华人体健康和生态效应相关原位观测能力的建设,揭示海洋藻毒素形成、迁移转化(含食物链富集)的生理和环境机制,探明不同类型有害藻华灾害事件萌发—高峰—衰退的生物和非生物多元耦合驱动机制等交叉科学问题。
The coastal ecosystem health has seen persistent decline due to stress exerted by global climate change and intense human influence,especially concerning is the frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms(HAB)that may have dire human health consequences.Building on more than two decades of research into medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystem responses to changes in environmental forcings such as climate change,ocean warming and acidification,extreme weather events,pollution and habitat destruction,efforts on near-term ecological forecasting are accelerating,enhancing the ability in near-real-time or real-time early warning of ecological disasters and forecasting of critical environmental or ecological parameters in aquatic systems across the land-ocean continuum.A synoptic analysis of recent HAB research in coastal water and the freshwater systems revealed that ecological forecasting faces two main challenges:first,the lack of high temporal resolution observation data including that of the causative harmful algal species;second,the limited spatial coverage of the data including most of the biological and even non-biological parameters.Therefore,there is an urgent need to develop remote sensing and in situ observation methods,automatic sampling and analyzing device,and to incorporate advanced biotechnology such as image based flow cytometer and omics tools including eDNA,data assimilation and spatio-temporal reconstruction of multi-sourced data,and artificial intelligence models.In our view,technology advances are necessary for answering HAB related scientific questions,for example,the mechanisms driving the occurrence,extent,intensity,and timing of the HAB.Due to severe human and mammalian health impact of HAB toxins,it is recommended that funding agencies prioritize research on human and ecosystem health effects of the HAB.It is also recommended that the newly formed NSFC Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences seeks joint support from maritime ministries and local government in coastal areas to invest in a National Harmful Algal Bloom Observation and Forecasting Network.By encouraging and supporting international collaboration,we are optimistic that coastal harmful algal bloom forecasting is within reach in the not too distant future.
作者
郑焰
郑一
冯炼
张传伦
李海龙
王俊坚
Yan Zheng;Yi Zheng;Liang Feng;Chuanlun Zhang;Hailong Li;Junjian Wang(School of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055;Department of Ocean Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055)
出处
《中国科学基金》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期969-983,共15页
Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42321004)的资助。
关键词
近海富营养化
有害藻华
藻毒素
有害藻华观测与预报网
生态预报模型
coastal eutrophication
harmful algal bloom
algal toxins
Harmful Algal Bloom Observation and Forecasting Network
ecological forecasting model
作者简介
通信作者:郑焰,南方科技大学讲席教授、美国地球物理联合会会士、美国地质学会会士。1999年于美国哥伦比亚大学获博士学位。曾任北京大学讲席教授、美国纽约市立大学皇后分校环境与地球科学院助理教授至终身教授及院长、美国哥伦比亚大学拉蒙特多尔蒂地球观测所兼职副研究员至兼职高级研究员、联合国儿童基金会驻孟加拉国水及环境卫生项目专员。研究方向包括环境-水文-海洋-地球化学、水环境与健康、水污染治理,Email:yan.zheng@sustech.edu.cn。
