摘要
受气候变化和人类活动的叠加影响,广发的极端干旱事件成为制约社会发展和威胁生态安全的关键因素。为明晰气候变化和人类活动对水文干旱演变进程的影响,本研究耦合能够细化人类活动影响的PCR-GLOBWB模型和SRI-RRV框架,定量评估了人类活动对中国各大流域水文干旱演变进程及干旱状态影响的时空差异性。结果表明:在空间层面,人类活动普遍加剧(缓解)中国北方流域(南方)的水文干旱;在时间层面,1990年之前的人类活动使得全国各大流域干旱面积呈扩张态势,而在此之后减少了南方流域的受旱面积;在叠加人类活动影响后,黄河、淮河和海河流域的干旱状态等级发生明显恶化,而长江、珠江和东南流域的SRI-RRV等级得到了有效改善。流域间不同的水资源管理方式、水利设施以及农业模式是造成中国水文干旱呈现区域性差异的主要原因。
Due to the compounded impact of climate change and human activities,the occurrence of extreme drought events poses a key constraint to societal development and threatens ecological security.Quantifying the influence of human activities on the hydrological drought evolution process is crucial for formulating rational water resource allocation strategies and mitigating the impacts of drought on both human society and ecosystems.To address this,our study coupled the PCR-GLOBWB model,which captures the nuanced effects of human activities,with the SRI-RRV framework.This coupling enabled a quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal variations in the impact of human activities on the hydrological drought evolution process and drought conditions in major river basins across the country.The results indicate that human activities generally exacerbate(alleviate)hydrological drought in the northern(southern)regions of China.Human activities have intensified the expansion of nationwide drought areas before 1990,but have reduced drought-affected areas in southern regions after 1990.Taking into account human influence,the drought severity in the Yellow River,Huaihe River,and Haihe River basins has significantly worsened,while the SRI-RRV grades in the Yangtze River,Pearl River,and southeastern basins have improved.This study highlights the regional disparities in the impact of human activities on hydrological drought,emphasizing the need for tailored water resource management measures based on the characteristics of different river basins to alleviate the losses caused by drought.
作者
吴凡
杨肖丽
任立良
崔周宇
WU Fan;YANG Xiaoli;REN Liliang;CUI Zhouyu(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第12期1448-1460,共13页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52079036,U2243203)。
作者简介
吴凡(1996-),博士生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:210201010015@hhu.edu.cn;通信作者:杨肖丽(1976-),博士,教授,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:yangxl@hhu.edu.cn。
