摘要
城市轨道交通系统作为城市中重要的生命线系统,其在地震中的损伤及震后的修复过程具有高度的不确定性,为了更合理地评估其抗震韧性,考虑多种不确定因素,基于“蒙特卡洛”模拟给出城市轨道交通系统抗震韧性定量评估框架。选用“阶梯型”的恢复路径,以网络服务效率指标表示系统的性能水平;以地震动预测方程为地震动输入依据来考虑地震动的空间差异性和不确定性;采用“蒙特卡洛”方法模拟了系统震后损伤及恢复过程,考虑了系统损伤及恢复过程的不确定性;基于“分布抽样”的方法考虑了修复时间的不确定性。以郑州市轨道交通网络作为典型案例,评估了其在8级地震下的抗震韧性,结果表明其抗震韧性服从均值为0.34,标准差为0.03的正态分布,震后总修复时间服从均值为276.86 d,标准差为21.05 d的正态分布。该研究可为城市轨道交通系统可恢复性评估提供参考。
As an important lifeline system in the city,urban rail transit system has a high degree of uncertainty in the process of earthquake damage and post-earthquake repair.In order to evaluate its seismic resilience more reasonably,considered a variety of uncertain factors and based on Monte Carlo simulation,a quantitative evaluation framework of seismic resilience of urban rail transit system was concluded.The‘ladder’recovery path was selected,and the network service efficiency index was used to represent the performance level of the system.The spatial difference and uncertainty of ground motion were considered based on the ground motion prediction equation.The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the post-earthquake damage state and recovery process of the system,and the uncertainty of system damage and recovery was considered.The uncertainty of repair time was considered by the method based on‘distributed sampling’.Zhengzhou rail transit network was taken as a typical case,the seismic resilience under the 8-magnitude earthquake was evaluated.The results show that the seismic resilience index obeys the normal distribution with a mean of 0.34 and a standard deviation of 0.03.The total repair time after the earthquake obeys the normal distribution with a mean of 276.86 days and a standard deviation of 21.05 days.This study can provide a reference for the resilience assessment of urban rail transit system.
作者
董正方
李乐意
王淼
杜子轩
李运华
DONG Zheng-fang;LI Le-yi;WANG Miao;DU Zi-xuan;LI Yun-hua(School of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200092,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2024年第34期14830-14838,共9页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
河南省自然科学基金(242300421433)
中国博士后科学基金(2024M750780)。
关键词
城市轨道交通系统
地震灾害
抗震韧性
网络性能
蒙特卡洛模拟
urban rail transit system
earthquake disaster
seismic resilience
network performance
Monte Carlo simulation
作者简介
第一作者:董正方(1980-),男,汉族,河南滑县人,博士,教授。研究方向:工程抗震。E-mail:dzf@henu.edu.cn。;通信作者:李运华(1980-),男,汉族,河南项城人,硕士,高级实验师。研究方向:材料学。E-mail:24561591@qq.com。
