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登革热分阶段预警模型的构建与应用

Construction and application of a staged early warning model for dengue fever
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摘要 为实现登革热多源预警,提高及时发现和识别登革热疫情暴发的能力,本研究以杭州市为例,提出登革热分阶段预警的可能,将登革热预警划分为疫源预警、疫兆预警、疫情预警三个阶段,并着重介绍疫源预警、疫兆预警两个阶段,以期为其他类似的研究提供参考。研究结果显示,登革热的分阶段预警是有意义的,将疫源预警与疫兆预警并联能提高预警灵敏度,月预警可以作为周预警的补充。 To achieve early warning of dengue fever from multiple sources and improve the ability to detect and identify dengue fever outbreaks timely,we took Hangzhou as an example and proposed the possibility of early warning of dengue fever.This study divided early warning of dengue fever into three stages:early warning of epidemic source,epidemic symptom,and epidemic.The early warning of epidemic source and epidemic symptom were emphasized to provide reference for other similar studies.Our findings showed that the staged warning of dengue fever was meaningful.Combining the source early warning with the symptom early warning could improve the sensitivity of the warning.Monthly warning can be used as a supplement to weekly warning.
作者 谭若云 李傅冬 马海燕 林君芬 Tan Ruoyun;Li Fudong;Ma Haiyan;Lin Junfen(Department of Public Health Surveillance&Advisory,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou310051,China;School of Public Health,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou311121,China;Department of Health Hazards Surveillance,Hangzhou Center For Disease Control and Prevention(Hangzhou Health Supervision Institute),Hangzhou310021,China;Zhejiang Key Lab of Vaccine,Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Hangzhou310051,China)
出处 《中华预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第11期1783-1788,共6页 Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金 浙江省重点研发计划(2021C03038)。
关键词 登革热 分阶段预警 Poisson回归模型 支持向量机 随机森林模型 Dengue fever Staged early warning Poisson regression model Support Vector Machine Random forests model
作者简介 通信作者:林君芬,Email:jflin@cdc.zj.cn。
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