摘要
【目的】大汶河是黄河下游最大的一条支流,位于山东省黄河南岸。近年来大汶河流域洪水频发,对突发洪水的应对能力要求较高。【方法】结合大汶河流域的降水及下垫面特性,基于三水源新安江模型构建大汶河流域洪水预报模型,将大汶河流域划分为13个水库计算单元和4个无水库控制计算单元,并分别采用不同产汇流方法进行计算,预报戴村坝站的洪水流量过程。【结果】戴村坝站洪峰流量预报值和实测值的相对误差均在±20%范围以内,符合《水文情报预报规范》合格标准。【结论】研究成果可为做好大汶河流域洪水灾害防御工作,提高自然灾害防治能力提供依据,对促进地区社会经济可持续发展与生态环境保护具有重要意义。
[Purposes]Dawen River is the largest tributary of the lower Yellow River,located on the south bank of the Yellow River in Shandong Province.In recent years,floods have occurred frequently in the Dawen River Basin,and there is a high demand for the ability to respond to sudden floods.[Methods]On the basis of the characteristics of precipitation and underlying surface in the Dawen River Basin,a flood forecasting model of the Basin is constructed based on the three-source Xin′anjiang model.The Dawen River Basin is divided into 13 reservoir calculation units and 4 non-reservoir control calculation units,and different runoff generation and convergence methods are used to calculate and predict the flood flow process of Daicunba Station.[Findings]The error between the predicted and measured peak flow rates at Daicunba Station is within±20%,which meets the qualified standard of the"Hydrological Information Forecasting Specification".[Conclusions]The research results can contribute to the prevention of flood disasters in the Dawen River Basin,improve the ability to prevent and control natural disasters,and have important strategic significance for promoting sustainable economic and social development and ecological environment protection in the region.
作者
孙晓明
李柯昕
SUN Xiaoming;LI Kexin(Shandong Yellow River Authority Dongping Lake Management Bureau,Tai′an 271018,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《河南科技》
2024年第21期43-48,共6页
Henan Science and Technology
基金
河南省高等学校重点科研项目基础研究计划(25A570005)
河南省高等学校创新训练计划项目(2023XB270)。
关键词
大汶河流域
数值模拟
新安江模型
洪水预报
Dawen River Basin
numerical simulation
Xin′an River Model
flood forecasting
作者简介
孙晓明(1975-),男,本科,高级工程师,研究方向:水力学及河流动力学。
