摘要
针对电力变压器的维修历史数据有限且存在删失数据,以往维修策略较少考虑实际维修成本动态变化的问题,提出了一种考虑不完全维修与动态维修成本的优化方法。该方法基于期望最大化算法和蒙特卡洛算法,解决了小样本条件下缺陷删失数据的分布拟合问题,并引用动态的不完全维修改善因子更好地描述维修成本的动态变化。验证结果显示,在满足可靠性约束的前提下,维修成本可降低13.221%。研究表明,随着维修周期延长,主导维修成本因素由修复性维修转向预防性维修。
Aiming at the limited historical maintenance data of power transformers and the existence of missing data,and the problem that previous maintenance strategies rarely considered the dynamic changes in actual maintenance costs,an optimization method considering incomplete maintenance and dynamic maintenance costs is proposed.This method is based on the expectation maximization algorithm and Monte Carlo algorithm,which solves the distribution fitting problem of defect deletion data under small sample conditions,and uses dynamic incomplete maintenance improvement factors to better describe the dynamic changes in maintenance costs.The verification results show that under the premise of meeting reliability constraints,maintenance costs can be reduced by 13.221%.And through further research,it was concluded that as the maintenance cycle extends,the dominant maintenance cost factor shifts from corrective maintenance to preventive maintenance.
作者
张建英
韦兴政
赵夏瑶
付文光
褚文超
仵宏铎
周栋
ZHANG Jianying;WEI Xingzheng;ZHAO Xiayao;FU Wenguang;CHU Wenchao;WU Hongduo;ZHOU Dong(Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Inner Mongolia Power Research Institute Branch,Hohhot 010020,China;School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Ulanqab Power Supply Company,Ulanqab 012000,China)
出处
《兵器装备工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第10期258-268,共11页
Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering
基金
内蒙古电力科学研究院2024年年度科技项目(510141240001)。
关键词
电力变压器
维修策略
不完全维修
改善因子
蒙特卡洛算法
EM算法
power transformer
maintenance strategy
incomplete maintenance
improvement factor
Monte Carlo algorithm
EM algorithm
作者简介
张建英(1990-),女,硕士,高级工程师,E-mail:hitzjyee@163.com;通信作者:周栋(1977-),男,博士,研究员,博士生导师,E-mail:zhoudong@buaa.edu.cn。
