摘要
为深入分析商业综合体火灾事故成因,揭示事故致因因素之间的关联规则,运用事故致因“2-4”模型和Apriori算法,对40起商业综合体火灾事故原因进行分析,研究结果表明:在组织文化、管理体系、个体能力和个体动作4个层面中,安全主体责任的认识(100%)、安全管理制度未执行(80%)、无安全培训(70%)等因素是火灾事故的主要原因;通过Apriori算法挖掘出277条关联规则,并从高支持度、高置信度和高提升度3个维度进行深入分析,发现员工参与度与防火意识薄弱、安全管理知识匮乏与报警意识薄弱且应急响应不及时等因素之间存在显著关联。基于分析结果,提出加强安全责任意识、完善管理制度执行、强化安全培训等针对性建议,为商业综合体火灾预防提供理论依据和实践指导。
In order to deeply analyze the causes of fire accidents in commercial complexes and reveal the association rules among the factors causing accident,the causes of 40 fire accidents in commercial complexes were analyzed by using the"2-4"model(24Model)and Apriori algorithm.The research results show that among the four aspects of organizational culture,management system,individual capability,and individual action,the main causes of fire accidents are the awareness of safety main responsibility(100%),the failure to implement safety management systems(80%),and absence of safety training(70%).Through the Apriori algorithm,277 association rules are mined,and in-depth analysis is conducted from three dimensions of high support,high confidence,and high improvement.It is found that there is a significant association among employee participation and weak fire prevention awareness,lack of safety management knowledge and weak alarm awareness and untimely emergency response.Based on the analysis results,the specific suggestions such as strengthening awareness of safety responsibility,improving the implementation of management systems,and enhancing safety training are put forward to provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for fire prevention in commercial complexes.
作者
刘志鹏
孙世梅
LIU Zhipeng;SUN Shimei(School of Emergency Science and Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China;Institute of Accident Prevention Science,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China)
出处
《安全》
2024年第9期11-16,共6页
Safety & Security
基金
吉林省财政厅与吉林省安全生产监督管理局联合项目(吉财产业指[2017]1000号,吉安监规划[2017]287号)。
作者简介
刘志鹏(2000-),男,吉林白城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全工程。E-mail:lzp15944617696@163.com;通信作者:孙世梅(1966-),女,吉林磐石人,博士,教授,主要从事行为安全与事故预防等方面的研究工作。E-mail:sunshir@163.com。
