摘要
为准确量化具有相关性的随机变量对含下垂控制孤岛微电网运行状态的影响,提出随机变量条件采样法,在计及随机变量相关性情况下,采用基于拉丁超立方采样的蒙特卡洛算法实现全局灵敏度指标计算,以提高基于方差的全局灵敏度分析精度和效率。在计及下垂控制的含不确定源的38节点微电网中设置算例,以传统蒙特卡洛仿真法提供精度参考,验证所提方法性能。算例结果表明,随机变量相关性能显著影响微电网全局灵敏度分析结果,且所提方法能在该分析中准确计及随机变量相关性的影响。证明了在微电网的全局灵敏度分析中精确计及随机变量相关性的重要性,以及通过所提方法实施全局灵敏度分析的必要性。
To accurately quantify the impact of correlated random variables on the operational state of an islanded microgrid with droop control,a conditional sampling method for random variables is proposed.The global sensitivity indices are computed using a Monte Carlo algorithm based on Latin hypercube sampling,considering the correlation of random variables to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of variance-based global sensitivity analysis.A case study is set up in a 38-node microgrid with droop control and uncertain sources,with traditional Monte Carlo simulation providing accuracy reference to validate the proposed method's performance.The case study results indicate that the correlation of random variables significantly affects the global sensitivity analysis results of the microgrid,and the proposed method accurately accounts for this correlation.This demonstrates the importance of precisely considering random variable correlation in global sensitivity analysis of microgrids and the necessity of implementing the proposed method for such analyses.
作者
许海园
谢博宇
赵才垒
XU Haiyuan;XIE Boyu;ZHAO Cailei(Zhengzhou Electric Power College,Zhengzhou 450000,China;Electric PowerResearch Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450000,China;CGN New Energy Henan Branch,Zhengzhou 450000,China)
出处
《能源研究与管理》
2024年第3期104-111,共8页
Energy Research and Management
基金
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22B470012)
河南省重点研发与推广专项-科技攻关项目(212102210253)。
关键词
孤岛微电网
随机变量
相关性
全局灵敏度分析
拉丁超立方采样
islanded microgrids
random variables
correlation
global sensitivity analysis
Latin hypercube samples
作者简介
第一作者:许海园(1990-),女,讲师,硕士,主要研究方向为智能微电网技术。E-mail:j1183073959@163.com。
