摘要
基于2000-2020年土地利用数据分析闽三角城市群土地利用变化情况,结合当量因子表核算生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Value,ESV)变化情况,并以2035年为目标年,利用CA-Markov模型模拟自然发展、经济发展、生态保护、耕地保护4种情景下土地利用和生态系统服务价值变化,据此讨论土地利用变化对ESV的影响,并对不同生态系统服务类型进行协同/权衡关系分析。结果表明:①2000-2020年闽三角城市群耕地面积锐减,建设用地大范围扩张,林地、草地面积少量缩减;2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年研究区ESV总量分别为2281.34亿元、2258.54亿元、2196.82亿元、2175.81亿元、2200.69亿元,总体呈下降趋势。②2035年闽三角城市群在自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护、经济发展4种情景下,ESV总量分别为2138.42亿元、2133.04亿元、2166.35亿元、2112.63亿元,均呈下降趋势,经济发展情景下ESV总量最低,自然发展与耕地保护情景下ESV总量损失也较大,而生态保护情景有效延缓了ESV的下降趋势,且生态系统服务类型间的协同关系最强,成为未来闽三角城市群土地利用优化的最优情景。
Based on the land use data in the Fujian Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020,the changing trends of land use and ecosystem service value(ESV)were analyzed in the past 20 years.Taking 2035 as the target year,the CA-Markov model was adopted to simulate the changes in land use and ESV under four scenarios of natural development,economic development,ecological protection and cultivated land protection,so as to discuss the impact of land use change on ESV under different scenarios,and to analyze the synergy/trade-off relationship between different ecosystem service types.It is found as follows.①From 2000 to 2020,the changes of land use in the study area were obvious.The area of cultivated land decreased sharply and the area of forest land and grassland decreased slightly,while the construction land expanded in a large scale.Correspondingly,the total ESV in the study area was 228.134 billion yuan,225.854 billion yuan,219.682 billion yuan,217.581 billion yuan,and 220.069 billion yuan in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020,respectively,showing a downward trend.②Under the four scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection and economic development,the total ESV of the study area will be 213.842 billion yuan,213.304 billion yuan,216.635 billion yuan and 211.263 billion yuan in 2035,respectively,showing a downward trend.Among them,the total ESV under the economic development scenario is the lowest,the total ESV under the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario is also greatly reduced,and the ecological protection scenario will effectively delay the downward trend of ESV,with strongest synergy between ecosystem service types,which will be the optimal scenario for land use optimization in Fujian Delta urban agglomeration in the future.
作者
李思源
倪欢
牛晓楠
冯梦凡
吴宇
冯欢
LI Siyuan;NI Huan;NIU Xiaonan;FENG Mengfan;WU Yu;FENG Huan(School of Remote Sensing&Geomatics Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Nanjing Center,China Geological Survey,Nanjing 210016,China)
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期28-34,41,共8页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41901310、41801384)
华东地区自然资源动态监测与风险评估项目(DD20211390)。
作者简介
李思源(2002-),男,研究方向为土地利用时空变化;通信作者:倪欢,E-mail:nih@nuist.edu.cn。
