摘要
使用FloodArea淹没模型对2023年7月29~31日“杜苏芮”北上引起的罕见华北“23·7”强降水在滹沱河流域的淹没情况及对社会经济的影响进行评估,并基于灾情调查结果对评估结果进行检验。结果表明:滹沱河流域地势低洼及河道附近地区的洪涝风险较大;“23·7”强降水过程造成滹沱河流域最大淹没深度2.9 m,受洪灾影响人口为51.2万人,受影响国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)为73.3亿元,耕地和居民地受灾面积分别为909.8 km2和86.7 km2。模拟最大淹没深度、受影响GDP和受灾面积与实际调查情况基本一致,该结果表明FloodArea模型在滹沱河流域具有较好的洪水淹没模拟效果,可试用于暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预警业务;暴雨洪涝评估结果可为政府及相关部门防灾救灾提供依据。
Using the FloodArea model,the socioeconomic impacts of the extremely heavy rainfall caused by the northward movement of typhoon Dusuri during 29–31 Jul 2023,are herein evaluated.The model is validated by the disaster data of this extreme event.The results indicate a high risk of flash floods near the low-lying river channels and mountain valleys in the Hutuo River basin,China.The maximum submergence depth of the basin during this heavy rainfall is 2.9 m.A population of 512000 is affected by the involved flood,with the affected Gross Domestic Product(GDP)being 7.33 billion yuan.Moreover,909.8 km2 of farmland and 86.7 km2 of residential land are affected.The simulated maximum submergence depth,affected GDP,and affected area are consistent with those of the actual survey.The results show that the FloodArea model has a good flood-submergence simulation effect for the Hutuo River basin and that it can be used for risk assessment and early warnings of rainstorms and flood disasters.Overall,the evaluation results of rainstorms and flood disasters can provide guidance for disaster prevention and relief work of governments and related departments.
作者
范志宣
赵海燕
任玉欢
胡英娟
刘月丽
FAN Zhixuan;ZHAO Haiyan;REN Yuhuan;HU Yingjuan;LIU Yueli(Shanxi Climate Center,Taiyuan 030006;Shanxi Water Conservancy Development Center,Taiyuan 030000)
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期457-464,共8页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
山西省基础研究计划项目20210302124626
山西省气象局青年基金项目SXKQNQH20226341
山西省气象局重点项目SXKZDQH20226303。
作者简介
范志宣,男,1990年出生,工程师,主要从事气象灾害监测及影响评估工作。E-mail:fanzhixuanfl@163.com;通讯作者:赵海燕,E-mali:zhaohaiyan01234@163.com。
