摘要
为探究具有更高可信度的长江流域未来气温和降水的时空变化特征,基于1961~2020年中国格点化逐日气象观测数据,采用2022年最新发布的NASA高分辨率降尺度数据集(N-CMIP6)中的35个气候模式对长江流域气温和降水模拟能力进行了评估,进而预估了不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)长江流域在21世纪近期(2021~2040年)、中期(2041~2060年)和末期(2081~2100年)气温和降水的时空演变特征。结果表明:2021~2100年,长江流域年均气温和降水均呈现显著上升趋势,尤其是上游地区增温最为明显;到21世纪末期(2081~2100年),相较于基准期(1995~2014年),长江流域平均气温预计将升高1.61~5.18℃,平均降水量将增加7.6%~12.8%;秋季温度升高最为显著,其次是夏季,冬季降水增幅最大,秋季次之。研究成果有助于深化对区域气候变化的科学理解,为政府决策提供科学依据,以有效应对和适应气候变化带来的挑战,进而促进可持续发展。
To explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of future temperature and precipitation changes in the Changjiang River Basin with higher reliability,based on the grid meteorological observation data of China from 1961 to 2020,we use 35 climate models from the latest high-resolution downscaled dataset(N-CMIP6)released by NASA in 2022 to evaluate the temperature and precipitation simulation capability over the Changjiang River Basin.Future projections are made for temperature and precipitation changes over the Changjiang River Basin under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)in the 21st century,the near term(2021~2040),mid-term(2041~2060),and late-term(2081~2100).The results show that in the 21st century,the average temperature and precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin will show a significant upward trend,especially in the upper reaches.By the end of the 21st century(2081~2100),compared with the baseline period(1995~2014),the average temperature in the Changjiang River Basin is projected to rise by 1.61~5.18℃,with average precipitation increasing by 7.6%~12.8%.The temperature increase in autumn is the most significant,followed by summer,and the precipitation increase in winter is the largest,followed by autumn.This study can deepen the scientific understanding of the regional climate change in the Changjiang River Basin and provide a basis for decision-making to respond to climate change and promote sustainable development.
作者
温姗姗
王智晨
翟建青
蒋富霜
周彪
WEN Shanshan;WANG Zhichen;ZHAI Jianqing;JIANG Fushuang;ZHOU Biao(School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241002,China;Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,Wuhu 241002,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2024年第8期69-78,共10页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42005126)
国家自然科学基金面上基金项目(42071024)
安徽师范大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410370004)。
作者简介
温姗姗,女,讲师,博士,研究方向为气候变化影响。E-mail:wenss@ahnu.edu.cn。
