需求收缩下的财政政策乘数效应变化被引量：1

Change of Fiscal Policy Multiplier Effect Under the Demand Contraction:Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Explanation

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摘要在当前我国经济面临较大的需求收缩压力期间,持续的积极财政政策调控是否产生了理想的效果呢?本文的经验证据显示,在疫情之后的需求收缩时期,我国采取的积极财政政策产生了更大的乘数效应,调控效果明显提升。为了阐释经验证据背后的理论机制,本文构建了一个偶有约束的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,分析在需求收缩之后,财政政策乘数变化的深层机理。理论模拟发现,由于需求收缩导致了家庭信贷约束收紧,其边际消费倾向增大,此时采取积极的财政政策直接增加了家庭的流动性,放松了其预算约束,进而产生了更大的财政乘数效应。因此,在当前加强各类政策协调配合的实践中,建议以积极的投资性财政政策为主导,保持必要的财政支出强度来支持缓解家庭的财务负担,助力需求收缩时期我国的宏观调控更加精准有效。 China's current economic work emphasizes that"active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened and improve qual-ity and efficiency",and the effectiveness of fiscal policy has attracted much attention.Then,during the current period when China's economy is facing greater pressure of demand contraction,has the continuous positive fiscal policy regulation produced an ideal ef-fect?The empirical evidence of this paper shows that in the period of demand contraction after the epidemic,the proactive fiscal poli-cy adopted by China has a greater multiplier effect,and the regulation effect has been significantly improved.In order to explain the theoretical mechanism behind the empirical evidence,this paper constructs a New Keynesian DSGE model with occasional con-straints to analyze the deep mechanism of fiscal policy multiplier change after demand contraction.Theoretical simulation found that,as demand contraction led to the tightening of household credit constraints,its marginal propensity to consume increased,at this time to take active fiscal policy directly increased the liquidity of households,relaxing their budget constraints,which in turn produced a greater fiscal multiplier effect.Therefore,in the current practice of strengthening the coordination of various types of policies,it is recommended to take active investment fiscal policy as the leading one,and to maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure to support the alleviation of the financial burden of households,so as to help China's macroeconomic control in the period of demand contraction to be more accurate and effective.

作者盛夏陈杰潘静珍王诗逸 Sheng Xia;Chen Jie;Pan Jingzen;Wang Shiyi

机构地区西南财经大学中国金融研究院四川省社会科学院金融财贸研究所

出处《财经科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第7期109-120,共12页 Finance & Economics

关键词信贷约束财政乘数需求收缩 DSGE模型消费 Credit constraints Fiscal multiplier Demand contraction DSGE model Consumption

分类号 F810.451 [经济管理—财政学]

作者简介盛夏,西南财经大学中国金融研究院,xsheng@swufe.edu.cn;陈杰,四川省社会科学院金融财贸研究所,chenj1212@sina.com;通讯作者:潘静珍,西南财经大学中国金融研究院,ppanjz@163.com;王诗逸,西南财经大学中国金融研究院,wangshiyi@swufe.edu.cn。