摘要
能源结构转型和碳减排政策是实现“双碳”目标的重要举措。本研究旨在探讨“双碳”背景下发电行业碳减排政策与市场交易机制的耦合作用。通过研究绿色证书市场交易机制、碳排放市场交易机制与电力市场机制间的耦合协同效应,考虑了价格影响市场间机制、能源结构分析和技术创新等因素,建立系统动力学模型并进行多情景仿真,研究不同政策组合对市场均衡及电力行业碳减排的影响。通过对模型的敏感性分析,评估了各种政策措施对系统行为的潜在影响,对政策体系的作用机理及其协同机制进行分析,明确不同政策间可能存在的冗余激励和效应冲抵等现象。研究得出:有效的碳减排政策组合使得未来十年火电装机占比下降至45%,可再生能源占比突破50%与传统能源持平甚至超过传统能源。建议碳减排政策的成功实施需要综合考虑市场监管、激励机制、技术创新等多方面因素。
Energy structure transformation and carbon emission reduction policies are important initiatives to realize the“dual-carbon”goal.This paper aims to explore the coupling role of carbon emission reduction policy and market trading mechanism in the power generation sector in a“dual-carbon”background.It studies the coupling and synergistic effect between the green certificate market trading,the carbon emission market trading and the power market mechanisms.It takes into account factors such as price influence inter-market mechanism,energy structure analysis and technological innovation,to set up a system dynamics model and carry out a multi-scenario simulation.This studies the impact of different combinations of policies on market equilibrium and carbon emission reduction in the power sector.Through the sensitivity analysis of the model,this paper evaluates the potential impact of various policy measures on system behavior,analyzes the mechanism of the policy system and its synergy mechanism,and clarifies the phenomena of redundant incentives and offsetting effect that may exist among different policies.It concludes that the effective combination of carbon emission reduction policies will enable the installed share of thermal power to fall to 45%in the next decade,and the share of renewable energy to exceed 50%to equal or even exceed that of traditional energy.It is suggested that the successful implementation of carbon emission reduction policies requires comprehensive consideration of market regulation,incentive mechanisms,technological innovation and other factors.
作者
李璐
张泽端
毕贵红
阚小瑞
陈仕龙
LI Lu;ZHANG Zeduan;BI Guihong;KAN Xiaorui;CHEN Shilong(School of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;School of Engineering,Design and Physical Sciences,Brunel University,London UB83PH,UK)
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第12期69-81,共13页
Power System Protection and Control
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(52067009)
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2022YFB2703500)
昆明理工大学课程思政内涵式建设项目资助(2021KS009)
昆明理工大学在线开放课程(MOOC)建设项目资助(202107)。
关键词
碳减排
系统动力学
绿色证书
碳排放
电力市场
carbon emission reduction
system dynamics
green certificate
carbon emission
electricity market
作者简介
李璐(1976-),女,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为电力市场、可再生能源政策、能源经济,E-mail:103586871@qq.com;张泽端(1997-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为电力市场、电力经济与管理、可再生能源并网,E-mail:1213684594@qq.com;通信作者:陈仕龙(1972-),男,博士,教授,硕士导师,研究方向为电力系统继电保护、牵引供电系统。
