摘要
根据碧流河水库1984—2022年入库洪水的统计数据,应用标准化P-Ⅲ型分布的AR(1)模型对入库洪水进行模拟,通过入库洪水特征分析、洪水系列特征值随机模拟、洪水过程推求等计算,验证了碧流河水库调整汛限水位的可行性。结果表明,碧流河水库68.8 m的汛限水位还有适当调整的空间,预设汛限水位为69.2、69.6、69.8 m时,防洪风险值小于设计风险值,可增加蓄水量约2100万、3900万、6000万m3,实现防洪与兴利综合效益最大化,为水库汛限水位动态控制提供数据支撑。
According to the statistical data of the inflow flood of Biliuhe Reservoir from 1984 to 2022,the standardized P-Ⅲtype distributed AR(1)model is used to simulate the inflow flood.Through the analysis of inflow flood characteristics,the random simulation of flood series characteristic values,and the calculation of flood process,the feasibility of adjusting the flood limit water level of Biliuhe reservoir is verified.The results show that there is room for appropriate adjustment of the flood limit water level of 68.8m in Biluihe Reservoir.When the preset flood control limit water level is 69.2,69.6,and 69.8 meters,the flood control risk value is lower than the design risk value,which can increase the water storage capacity by about 21 million,39 million,and 60 million cubic meters,achieving the maximum comprehensive benefits of flood control and benefits,and providing data support for the dynamic control of the flood control limit water level of the reservoir.
作者
孙晓蕾
SUN Xiaolei(Liaoning Yingkou Hydrological Bureau,Yingkou 115003,China)
出处
《水科学与工程技术》
2024年第3期23-25,共3页
Water Sciences and Engineering Technology
关键词
碧流河水库
汛限水位
AR(1)模型
防洪风险计算
biliuhe reservoir
flood limit water level
AR(1)model
flood control risk calculation
作者简介
孙晓蕾(1983-),高级工程师,主要从事水资源分析与评价、水质监测与评价等工作。E-mail:401632343@qq.com。
