摘要
为明确全球森林因生物入侵所产生的经济成本,采用InvaCost数据库对1970—2017年全球范围内森林生物入侵经济成本报告进行分析。通过R语言对筛选数据进行处理,调整各成本数值为2017年等值美元,分别求和计算每10年平均经济成本、损失与管理成本、各国支出成本和各物种总成本。在此基础上,构建5种模型预测2010—2017年成本组成,通过均方根误差比较各预测模型准确率,分析21世纪10年代全球森林生物入侵的可能成本。结果表明:1970—2017年,全球森林生态系统因外来生物的入侵所产生的经济成本为1815.32亿美元(约1.23万亿人民币),20世纪80年代是成本增长最快的时期;管理成本在总成本中占比偏低,最高支出仅为21世纪初的4.96亿美元(约33.5亿元人民币)/年,远低于同时期森林生物入侵产生的危害损失;在纳入研究的36个国家中,中国支出了54.05%的经济成本,共计981.2亿美元(约6627.71亿元人民币),排名第1,美国606.03亿美元、加拿大114.59亿美元,分列2、3位;经济成本最高的10种入侵生物,包括3种病害、3种虫害、2种有害动物和2种入侵植物,其中松材线虫病所造成的经济损失达977.17亿美元,在各类入侵生物的经济成本中占比最高;广义加性模型和多元自适应样条回归显示了较好的预测效果,所得均方根误差最低,模型计算全球总成本将进一步增加,最高可达2521.1亿美元(约1.7万亿人民币),2010—2017年年均成本为88.02~97.04亿美元(约594.55~655.48亿元人民币)。
To identify the economic costs of global forests due to biological invasions,the InvaCost database was used to analyze the economic cost of forest biological invasions reported globally from 1970-2017,and the screening data were processed through R language to adjust each cost value to 2017 equivalent dollars,and summed separately to calculate the average economic cost per decade,loss and management costs,expenditure costs by country and total costs by species.Based on this,five models were constructed to predict the cost com-ponents from 2010-2017,and the possible costs of global forest biological invasion in the 21st decade were ana-lyzed by comparing the accuracy of each prediction model through root mean square error(RSME).The results showed that the economic cost of global forest ecosystems due to the invasion of alien organisms was$181.532 billion(about 1.23 trillion CNY)from 1970 to 2017,and the 1980s was the fastest growing period of cost;The management cost accounted for a low proportion of the total cost,and the highest expenditure was only$496 million/year(about 3.35 billion CNY)in the early 21st century,which was much lower than the damage loss caused by forest biological invasion in the same period.Among the 36 countries included in the study,China spent 54.05%of the economic costs,totaling$98.12 billion(about 662.771 billion CNY),ranking first,$60.603 billion in the United States and$11.459 billion in Canada,ranking second and third respectively.The 10 invas-ive species with the highest economic cost included three diseases,three insects,two pest animals and two invas-ive plants.The economic losses caused by pine wilt disease account for the highest proportion in the economic costs of all invasive species.Among the five prediction models,the generalized additive model and multivariate adaptive sample regression show good prediction results,and the root mean square error is the lowest.The global total cost calculated by the model will further increase in 2010-2017,up to$252.11 billion(about 1.7 trillion CNY),and the average annual cost from 2010 to 2017 is$8.802-9.704 billion(about 59.455-65.548 billion CNY).
作者
温玄烨
林晓
赵光华
时勇
王朵
赫传杰
柴守权
谢逸菲
Wen Xuanye;Lin Xiao;Zhao Guanghua;Shi Yong;Wang Duo;He Chuanjie;Chai Shouquan;Xie Yifei(Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Shenyang Liaoning 110034,China;College of Life Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan Shanxi 030031,China;Hunan Academy of Forestry,Changsha Hunan 410004,China)
出处
《西南林业大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第3期175-181,共7页
Journal of Southwest Forestry University：Natural Sciences
基金
生物灾害防控中心优青项目(FKQX2022001)资助
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1400300)资助。
作者简介
第1作者:温玄烨(1989-),男,博士研究生,工程师。研究方向:林业有害生物防治管理与技术。Email:397803265@qq.com;通信作者:谢逸菲(1988-),男,博士,助理研究员。研究方向:林业有害生物防治技术。Email:xyf8779@163.com。
