摘要
为分析区块链技术在危险货物道路运输安全监管中的应用价值,利用演化博弈法建立由监管方、承运方和托运方构成的三方演化博弈模型,确定收益矩阵和复制动态方程,分析演化博弈系统中各均衡点的稳定条件。利用MATLAB对各利益主体的策略选择进行了动态演化分析,探究三方演化博弈中相关变量对三方演化策略选择的影响。结果表明:区块链的应用成本与各参与方的策略选择呈负相关;应用区块链技术对监管方合规监管、承运方和托运方遵守规定倾向的提升程度及应用区块链时监管方的补贴程度与各方的策略选择呈正相关;监管方责任规避系数与策略选择呈负相关,承运方和托运方的责任附加系数与策略选择呈正相关。
To analyze the application value and application influencing factors of blockchain technology in the safety supervision of road transport of dangerous goods,the three-party evolutionary game theory was introduced to construct a three-party evolutionary game model composed of the supervisor,the carrier,and the shipper.First,the game relationship among stakeholders was discussed in the transportation of dangerous goods,model assumptions were proposed,and the payoff matrix and replication dynamic equations were determined.Then,the equilibrium point and its stable conditions in the evolutionary game system were analyzed.Finally,MATLAB was used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the strategy choices of various stakeholders and to explore the influence of relevant variables in the tripartite evolutionary game on the choice of tripartite evolution strategies.The results show that the evolutionary stability strategy of the three-party game subject is affected by various factors such as the cost of blockchain,the degree of compliance supervision and compliance improvement that blockchain can bring,subsidy coefficient,liability avoidance,and additional degree.The application cost of the blockchain is negatively correlated with the strategic choice of each participant;the application of blockchain technology can improve the regulator s compliance supervision,the carrier s and consignor s tendency to comply with the regulations,and the regulator s subsidy for the application of the blockchain.The degree is positively correlated with the strategic choices of all parties;the liability avoidance coefficient of the regulator is negatively correlated with the strategic choices,and the additional liability coefficients of the carrier and shipper are positively correlated with the strategic choices.The above results can provide a decision-making basis for all parties in the dangerous goods transportation supervision system to choose whether to apply blockchain technology and can also provide a reference for the specific application of blockchain technology in the transportation of dangerous goods.
作者
吴海涛
刘月
WU Haitao;LIU Yue(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Comprehensive Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Chengdu 611756,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1894-1903,共10页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51605398)。
关键词
安全社会工程
危险货物运输
安全监管
区块链
三方演化博弈
safety social engineering
dangerous goods transportation
safety supervision
blockchain
tripartite evolutionary game
作者简介
吴海涛,副教授,博士,从事交通运输系统安全性与人因可靠性、交通运输网络可靠性等研究,wuhaitao@swjtu.cn。
