摘要
运用投入产出模型,分析了中国氢能产业在GDP增长和温室气体排放方面直接和间接的宏观经济影响。首先编制氢能产业投入产出表,将氢能在交通、工业、建筑等领域的应用作为最终需求,将氢能产业制-储-运-加-用各环节的建设和运营作为中间投入;其次,结合碳排放卫星账户,从经济和排放2个角度分析宏观经济影响。结果表明,每万吨绿氢投资产生约1.26亿元的GDP,在运营阶段,平均每年的GDP贡献将近2 000万元;绿氢带来的总碳排放仅为蓝氢和灰氢的约1/10,具有明显的减碳优势。所提方法可以推广到省域乃至城市尺度的研究中。
This study utilizes an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect macroeconomic impacts of China's hydrogen energy industry on GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions.Firstly,the study establishes an input-output table for the hydrogen energy industry,with its applications in transportation,industry,construction,and other sectors as final demand and the construction,operation,and utilization stages of the hydrogen energy industry as intermediate inputs.Secondly,by combining carbon emission satellite accounts,the study analyzes the macroeconomic impacts from both economic and emissions perspectives.The results indicate that an investment of approximately 126 million yuan in green hydrogen production generates a GDP value of approximately 10,000 million yuan.During the operational phase,the average annual GDP contribution is close to 20 million yuan.Green hydrogen brings about only about one-tenth of the total carbon emissions compared to blue hydrogen and gray hydrogen,demonstrating significant decarbonization advantages.Finally,this research method can be applied to studies at the provincial and even city levels.
作者
李国敏
刘小琴
李玮
马小龙
LI Guomin;LIU Xiaoqin;LI Wei;MA Xiaoong(Economic Management College,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;Development and utilization of hydrogen engineering research center of Shanxi Province,Jinzhong 030000,China;Hydrogen Division Shanxi Pengfei Group Co.,Ltd.,Loliang 032399,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2024年第3期24-33,共10页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72104172,72174137)
山西省哲学社会科学研究项目(2019W024)。
关键词
氢能产业
投入产出分析
宏观经济影响
系统边界
氢能需求情景
减碳优势
hydrogen industry
input-output model
macroeconomic impact
system boundary
hydrogen demand scenario
carbon reduction advantages
作者简介
李国敏(1987-),男,山西芮城人,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,《煤炭经济研究》青年编委,主要从事能源经济、碳转移与减排研究。E-mail:liguomin@tyut.edu.cn。
