摘要
生产要素变动对区域经济发展空间格局演化具有重要影响。论文基于1990—2020年290个地级市的面板数据,运用Mann-Kendall方法将中国市域经济增长划分为1990—2012年和2013—2020年两个阶段,进一步采用Malmquist生产率指数和空间杜宾模型分析不同阶段生产要素变动对中国区域经济增长的影响。结果表明:①中国区域经济始终保持增长趋势,区域经济高速增长区已由东部沿海地区逐步转移到内陆地区,增长格局由明显的“东西”差异向“东西”和“南北”差异并存转变。②生产要素变动的空间分布格局存在明显的差异。资本存量比重大的区域由东北地区、环渤海地区连片分布逐渐向东南沿海地区转移,同时在中西部的核心城市零星分布;从业人员增量格局中东南高、西北低的局面始终存在,高值区主要分布在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝城市群;资本深化水平和要素投入产出效率总体上均呈现逐年上升趋势,深化程度和效率较高的地区仍为几个核心城市群。③生产要素变动对区域经济增长的影响程度在不同时段有一定差别,两个阶段对区域经济增长起主要促进作用的要素分别是要素投入产出效率和从业人员数。研究结果可为新形势下中国经济发展提供决策参考。
Changes in production factors have an important impact on the evolution of the spatial pattern of regional economic development.Based on the panel data of 290 prefecture-level cities in 1990-2020,the Mann-Kendall method was applied to classify China's municipal economic growth into two stages—1990-2012 and 2013-2020,and the Malmquist productivity index and spatial Durbin model were further used to analyze the effects of changes in production factors on China's regional economic growth at different stages.The results show that:1)China's regional economy has always maintained its growth trend,and the regional economic growth areas have gradually shifted from the eastern coastal areas to the inland areas,and the growth pattern has changed from an obvious east-west difference to a coexistence of east-west and north-south differences.2)There are clear differences in the spatial distribution pattern of changes in production factors.The regions with a large proportion of capital stock have gradually shifted from a contiguous distribution in the northeast and the Bohai Rim to the southeast coastal region,while sporadically distributed in core cities in the central and western regions;the pattern of incremental employment is consistently high in the southeast and low in the northwest,with high-value areas mainly distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations;the level of capital deepening and factor input-output efficiency generally show a year-on-year upward trend,and the core urban agglomerations are still the ones with higher levels of capital deepening and efficiency.3)The degree of influence of factor changes on regional economic growth varied over time and at different scales,with factor input-output efficiency and the number of people employed being the main contributors to regional economic growth in the two periods,respectively.The research findings can serve as a decision-making reference for China's economic development under the new circumstance.
作者
管卫华
吴小妮
王浩
张惠
吴连霞
GUAN Weihua;WU Xiaoni;WANG Hao;ZHANG Hui;WU Lianxia(School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Geographic Information Resources of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210023,China;Population Research Institute,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期629-643,共15页
Progress in Geography
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH023)
南京市社会科学基金项目(23YB02)
江苏高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2020SJA0247)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2020ECNU-HLYT048,2022QKT001)。
关键词
生产要素
空间溢出
区域经济
全要素生产率
资本
production factors
spatial spillovers
regional economy
total factor productivity
capital
作者简介
第一作者:管卫华(1970-),男,江苏南通人,教授,博士,研究方向为城市与区域经济地理。E-mail:guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn。
