摘要
为了解水产养殖业能源消耗和碳排放的现状及发展趋势,基于LEAP模型,构建浙江省LEAP水产养殖模型,分析基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下浙江省水产养殖业的能源消耗和碳排放趋势。结果表明,从能源消费来看,未来浙江省水产养殖业基准情景下能源消费总量呈现出增长趋势,且能源消费构成中主要以化石能源为主,煤炭始终为最主要的能源需求。减碳措施具有一定节能作用,其中强化低碳情景2035年较基准情景节能15.24%,约节能25.11×10^(3)t;从终端能源消费结构来看,池塘养殖和饲料生产能耗较大,所有情景和年份中能源消耗量均超过了总能源消耗量的30%;从碳排放来看,浙江省水产养殖更偏向碳汇属性,减碳措施对于碳排放抑制具有一定作用;从减排贡献率来看,所考虑的减碳措施都能够降低CO_(2)排放,其中能效提升、清洁能源发电推广等措施对于水产养殖碳减排起到关键作用,到2035年分别贡献20.9%、64.5%的碳减排量。
In order to understand the current situation and development trend of energy consumption and carbon emission of aquaculture industry,based on LEAP model,constructed LEAP aquaculture model of Zhejiang Province and analyzed the trend of energy consumption and carbon emission of aquaculture industry in Zhejiang Province under baseline scenario,low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario.The results showed that in terms of energy consumption,the total energy consumption of the future aquaculture industry in Zhejiang Province under the baseline scenario showed an increasing trend,and the composition of energy consumption was mainly based on fossil energy,with coal always being the most dominant energy demand.Carbon reduction measures had a certain energy-saving effect,in which the enhanced low-carbon scenario 2035 was 15.24%more energy-efficient than the baseline scenario,saving approximately 25.11×10^(3)t.In terms of final energy consumption structure,pond farming and feed production consumed the most energy,with energy consumption exceeding 30%of total energy consumption in all scenarios and years.From the perspective of carbon emissions,aquaculture in Zhejiang Province was more inclined to carbon sink attributes,and carbon reduction measures had a certain effect on carbon emission suppression.In terms of emission reduction contribution,the carbon reduction measures considered were able to reduce CO_(2)emissions,with energy efficiency improvement and clean energy generation promotion playing a key role in aquaculture carbon reduction,contributing 20.9%and 64.5%of carbon reduction by 2035.
作者
徐谢亲
赵晟
XU Xie-qin;ZHAO Sheng(Department of Marine Science and Technology,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan,Zhejiang 316022)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2024年第9期45-50,共6页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
科技部国家重点研发计划蓝色粮仓科技创新专项(2019-YFD0901204-04)
浙江省属高校基本科研业务费(2021-JD006)
浙江省重点研发计划项目(2019C02056)。
关键词
水产养殖
LEAP模型
碳排放
减排贡献
Aquaculture
LEAP model
Carbon emissions
Contribution of emission reduction
作者简介
徐谢亲(1998-),女,江西景德镇人,硕士研究生,研究方向:海洋生态与渔业碳排放;通信作者:赵晟,教授,博士,硕士生导师,从事海洋生态学研究。
