摘要
近年来,国际油价在“OPEC+”产量政策、美联储货币政策、地缘局势动荡等因素影响下震荡加剧,对石油企业的生产经营造成了巨大挑战。以国际油价演变为主线,从供需、地缘、金融等角度回顾了2023年国际原油市场的特点:从需求侧看,欧美需求由“降”转“稳”,中国、印度两国带动全球原油需求稳定增长;从供给侧看,“OPEC+”坚持减产保价策略不动摇,美国、伊朗成为主要增产国;叠加地缘冲突加剧、欧美央行维持高利率,国际油价宽幅波动,布伦特原油均价为82美元/桶,同比下降16.8%。立足关键要素的边际变化,从需求增幅收窄、“OPEC+”延长减产、美元进入降息周期及地缘博弈持续等维度展望了2024年国际原油市场,得出全年油价或同比小幅上行的结论,以期为油气行业生产经营提供决策参考。
In recent years,international oil price,affected by such factors as the production policies of OPEC+,Federal Reserve monetary policy,and geographical situation change,has fluctuated greatly,which offers a great challenge for oil enterprises’production and operation.The paper reviews the international crude oil in 2023 from the perspective of demand&supply,geography,and finance by taking international oil price as the main line.From the demand perspective,oil demand in Europe and the United States shifted from“decline”to“stability”,with China and India driving steady growth in global crude oil demand.On the supply side,OPEC+remained steadfast in its production cut strategy to maintain prices,while the United States and Iran emerged as key countries increasing output.Layered on top of this were intensifying geopolitical conflicts and high interest rates maintained by central banks in Europe and the United States,leading to wide fluctuations in international oil prices.Brent crude’s average price for the year stood at 82$per barrel,down 16.8%year-on-year.Looking ahead to 2024,the paper suggests the average oil price is expected to rise slightly over the last year in order to offer a reference for oil and gas industry’s production and operation based on the marginal changes of key elements from such perspectives as decreased demand growth,OPEC+’s production cut extension,a cycle of interest rate cuts of US Dollar,and continuous geographical game.
作者
张庆辰
仇玄
张迪
ZHANG Qingchen;QIU Xuan;ZHANG Di(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《油气与新能源》
2024年第2期18-24,共7页
Petroleum and new energy
基金
中国石油天然气集团有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“原油及下游产品市场分析预测关键技术研究与应用”(2021DJ7702)。
关键词
国际原油市场
供应
需求
油价
International crude oil market
Supply
Demand
Oil price
作者简介
第一作者:张庆辰,男,硕士,工程师,2020年毕业于中国石油大学(北京)金融专业。现在中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院,从事国际原油市场研究工作。通信地址:北京市海淀区志新西路3号,100083。E-mail:zhangqingchenyxs@petrochina.com.cn。
