摘要
建筑业作为高能耗行业,分析建筑业碳排放及其影响因素具有重要的现实意义.首先从建筑业全过程碳排放的宏观视角建立核算模型,以广东省为例测算2007—2021年建筑业碳排放;继而通过文献梳理出41个影响因素,利用灰色综合关联分析法进行单因素分析筛选出20个指标;然后通过STIRPAT模型和岭回归得到城市人口数量、人均建筑业碳排放量、人均钢材产量、建筑业劳动生产率、建筑业总产值5个碳排放显著影响因素;最后通过GM(1,1)模型和情景法预测广东省建筑业预计2030年碳达峰,预计峰值约8.3~8.9亿t,预计减碳潜力约1.1~1.4亿t,并根据系统聚类法将21个地市分为五类并相应提出达峰路径,同时从政策及组织体系、建筑业全寿命周期、人才培养和智慧化等方面提出减排建议.
Construction industry is a high energy consumption industry.Analyzing the carbon emission and its influencing factors in this industry is of great practical significance.Firstly,an accounting model in established from a macro perspective of whole-process carbon emission in the construction industry,taking Guangdong Province as an example to calculate the carbon emission in this industry from 2007 to 2021.Secondly,41 influencing factors are identified through literature review,among which 20 indicators are selected through single factor analysis by using the grey comprehensive correlation analysis method.Thirdly,five significant factors in carbon emission are obtained by using the STIRPAT model and ridge regression.These factors include urban population,per capita carbon emission in construction industry,per capita steel production,labor productivity in construction industry,and gross product of construction industry.Lastly,the GM(1,1)model and scenario method are used to predict that the construction industry in Guangdong Province.It will reach its peak carbon emission in 2030,with the estimated peak carbon emission about 0.83 to 0.89 billion tons and estimated potential carbon reduction about 0.11 to 0.14 billion tons.Based on this prediction,the 21 cities in Guangdong are divided into five categories with the system clustering method and paths to reach peak carbon emission of each categoriry is put forawrd accordingly.Meanwhile,proposals of emission reduction are given in this paper from the policy and organizational system,the entire life cycle of the construction industry,talent cultivation and intelligentization.
作者
丘康尧
何寿奎
QIU Kangyao;HE Shoukui(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Guangzhou Academy of Fine Arts,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2024年第3期440-449,共10页
Henan Science
关键词
建筑业
碳排放
影响因素
碳达峰
construction industry
carbon emission
influencing factor
peak carbon emission
作者简介
丘康尧(1985-),男,高级工程师,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为低碳建设;通信作者:何寿奎(1967-),男,教授,博士生导师,博士,研究方向为公共项目管理、低碳建设、农村环境治理。
