基于出行链的铁路车站开通初期客流预测研究

Research on Passenger Flow Forecast of Railway Stations at the Initial Stage of Operation Based on Intercity Trip Chain

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摘要【目的】为解决铁路车站开通初期客流预测缺乏数据支撑,以及估计不同交通方式成本来计算客流转移量结果与实际偏差较大的问题。【方法】以新开通南沿江城际铁路江阴站为例,考虑该线与既有高速及城际铁路的线位关系,基于城际出行链,依托旅客出行行为调查对区域内可选择的不同交通方式的城际出行效用进行定量计算,采用Multinominal Logit(MNL)模型,区分工作日与非工作日,结合客流分配现状对效用变量系数进行标定,据此预测南沿江城际铁路江阴站开通后发往南京、上海枢纽的客流量,同时结合城市经济和社会发展推演计算发往沿线其他站点的客流。【结果】结果表明,南沿江城际铁路江阴站的开通可以有效吸引江阴地区原本选择既有铁路、公路去往南京、上海的客流以及选择公路去往南沿江城际铁路沿线其他城市的客流。【结论】因此,南沿江城际铁路的开通能有效缓解辐射范围内既有铁路、公路的运输压力,客流预测结果还将支撑站点运力资源配置优化研究。【Objective】In order to address the lack of data support for passenger flow forecast of railway stations at the initial stage of operation,as well as the significant deviation between the roughly calculated passenger flow transfer of different transport modes considering the costs of different modes and the actual situation.【Method】This paper takes the newly opened Jiangyin Station of the South Riverside Intercity Railway as an example,considering the location relationship between the line and the existing high-speed and intercity railways,based on the intercity trip chain,and relying on the passenger travel behavior survey to quantitate the intercity trip utilities of different transportation modes.Combined with the current passenger flow assignment and distinguishing workdays and non-workdays,the Multinomial Logit(MNL)model is established for calibrating the coefficients of utility variables.Accordingly,the passenger flows from Jiangyin Station on the South Riverside Intercity Railway,the passenger flows to Nanjing and Shanghai terminals were predicted,to other stations along the line were also calculated deductively in combination with the economic and social developments of the cities along the line.【Result】The results show that the opening of Jiangyin Station can effectively attract the passenger flows in Jiangyin area who originally chose the existing railways and highways to Nanjing and Shanghai,as well as the passenger flows that chose the highways to other cities along South Riverside Intercity Railway.【Conclusion】Therefore,the opening of South Riverside Intercity Railway can effectively relieve the transportation pressure of existing railways and highways in the region,and the passenger flow forecast results also supports the optimization of station resource allocation.

作者叶玉玲朱资岳汪龙洋宋唯维周文涛 Ye Yuling;Zhu Ziyue;Wang Longyang;SongWeiwei;ZhouWentao(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Wuxi Railway Station,China Railway Shanghai Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuxi 214001,China)

机构地区同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室同济大学交通运输工程学院中国铁路上海局集团有限公司无锡站

出处《华东交通大学学报》 2024年第1期78-86,共9页 Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基金上海市自然科学基金项目(22ZR1465800)。

关键词铁路运输客流预测 MNL模型出行效用城际出行链旅客出行行为调查 railway transportation passenger flow forecast MNL model travel utility intercity trip chain passenger travel behavior survey

分类号 U293.1 [交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]

作者简介第一作者:叶玉玲(1971—),女,教授,博士,博士生导师,研究方向为轨道交通运输组织优化、轨道交通系统规划与设计、交通运输经济政策。E-mail:yyling71@163.com;通信作者:朱资岳(1994—),男,博士研究生,研究方向为运输组织优化与交通运输经济政策。E-mail:ziyue_zhu@tongji.edu.cn。