摘要
在冷战结束之后,世界范围内的国内冲突激增,国内冲突研究逐渐成为安全研究的主流,国内冲突的扩散问题也开始得到较多关注。在对国内冲突的扩散产生影响的诸多因素之中,难民因素属于跨国联系类因素,其作用机制更加贴合国内冲突从一国扩散到他国的过程,是导致国内冲突扩散的一个主要的影响因素。对具有过程性质的国内冲突扩散进行研究,关键在于找出和验证产生扩散的作用机制。既有研究提出的两类作用机制中,难民的负面外部性过于庞杂,并且与其他影响国内冲突扩散的因素有很强的相关性,使得相关定量研究的准确性受到了影响;难民拓展叛乱网络的因素与反政府组织这一国内冲突行为体联系紧密,具有较强的解释力,但是在研究中过分依赖难民一致性的假定。对难民因素作用机制的进一步研究需要打开难民因素这个黑箱,对难民因素进行细分,区分各类难民属性对国内冲突扩散的影响。既通过回顾和评述有关难民因素在国内冲突扩散中所起作用的既有研究,并提出可能的研究方向,又通过难民的流向和难民的来源区分不同类型的难民,并观察其在国内冲突扩散中的影响机制以及有可能是潜在的研究方向。
After the ending of the Cold War,domestic conflicts surged worldwide,and the related research gradually became the mainstream of security research including the spread of domestic conflicts(SDC).Among the impactingfactors on SDC,the refugee factor belongs to the category of cross-border linkage factors,and its mechanism of action is more in line with the process of domestic conflicts spreading from one country to another.Thus,it is a major factor that leads to SDC.The key to studying SDC with process properties is to identify and verify the mechanisms that generate diffusion.Among the two types of mechanisms proposed by existing studies,the negative externalities of refugees are too complex and strongly correlated with other factors affecting SDC,which harms the accuracy of relevant quantitative research.The factors that contribute to the expansion of refugee rebel networks are closely related to anti-government organizations as domestic conflict actors,and have strong explanatory power.However,in the research,there is an excessive reliance on the assumption of refugee consistency.Further research on the mechanism of refugee factors requires opening up the black box of refugee factors,subdividing them,and distinguishing the impact of various refugee attributes on SDC.Distinguishing different types of refugees by their flow and source and observing their impact mechanisms in SDC may be the potential research direction.
作者
董绍政
唐晓阳
DONG Shaozheng;TANG Xiaoyang
出处
《闽南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2023年第4期34-46,共13页
Journal of Minnan Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences
作者简介
董绍政,男,湖北武汉人,清华大学人文学院国际政治系博士研究生;唐晓阳,男,江苏赣榆人,清华大学人文学院国际政治系教授、博士生导师,博士。
