摘要
森林碳汇是实施乡村振兴战略的强大动力,然而在多大程度上可以促进农民增收,进而推动乡村振兴,则需要进行定量分析与评价。通过构建乡村振兴绩效评价指数,对我国30个省(市、自治区)乡村振兴绩效进行评价;建立岭回归模型,重点分析森林碳汇对乡村振兴绩效的影响程度,进一步进行关于乡村振兴绩效评价指数的灰色聚类决策分析。结果表明:我国乡村建设取得很大成就,但建设成果分布不均,地域间差别较大,广大西部地区依然是乡村振兴的主战场;森林碳汇对乡村振兴绩效评价指数有显著影响,同时要发挥道路建设的拉动作用,农村产业的选择和发展要遵循绿色、低碳准则;乡村振兴绩效评价等级为“差”的省份占比为43%,我国乡村振兴的任务还很艰巨。据此提出,分类指导分步推进、充分发挥森林碳汇对乡村振兴的推动作用、支持西部省份重点发展森林碳汇项目等政策建议。
Forest carbon sequestration is a powerful driving force for implementing rural revitalization strategies,but the extent to which forest carbon sequestration can promote farmers′income and further promote rural revitalization requires quantitative analysis and evaluation.The article first constructs a performance evaluation index for rural revitalization,which evaluates the performance of rural revitalization in 30 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)in China.Next,establish a ridge regression model,focusing on analyzing the impact of forest carbon sinks on the performance of rural revitalization.Further conduct grey clustering decision-making analysis on the performance evaluation index of rural revitalization.The main conclusions of the article include:China has made great achievements in rural construction,but the distribution of construction achievements is uneven and there are significant regional differences.The vast western region remains the main battlefield for rural revitalization;forest carbon sequestration has a significant impact on the performance evaluation index of rural revitalization,and at the same time,it should play a driving role in road construction.The selection and development of rural industries should follow green and low-carbon guidelines;the grey clustering results of the rural revitalization performance evaluation index show that 43%of provinces have a′poor′rating,and the task of rural revitalization in China is still very challenging.Based on the above analysis,the article proposes policy recommendations from the perspectives of classification guidance and step-by-step promotion,fully leveraging the role of forest carbon sequestration in promoting rural revitalization,and supporting the key development of forest carbon sequestration projects in western provinces.
作者
索贵彬
刘艺
孟晓萱
Suo Guibin;Liu Yi;Meng Xiaoxuan(School of Management,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050031,China;School of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050031,China)
出处
《西南林业大学学报（社会科学）》
CAS
2024年第1期31-37,共7页
Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Social Sciences)
基金
河北省高等教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2022GJJG289)资助
2023年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20230203018)资助。
关键词
森林碳汇
乡村振兴
绩效评价
灰色聚类
岭回归
forest carbon sink
rural revitalization
performance evaluation
grey clustering
ridge regression
作者简介
第一作者:索贵彬(1968-),男,博士,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事区域经济研究。Email:gbsuo@126.com。
