摘要
目的 分析近年来厦门市恙虫病的流行特征并对今后的流行趋势进行预测,为当地制定防控措施提供依据。方法 收集2013—2022年厦门市报告的恙虫病病例资料,采用描述流行病学方法对疾病的三间分布进行分析;同时使用季节性自回归移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型对2023—2025年厦门市恙虫病的发病趋势进行预测。结果 2013—2022年,厦门市共报告恙虫病病例862例,年均发病率为2.06/10万,不同年份的发病率总体呈波动下降趋势(χ~2_(趋势)=170.74,P<0.05)。时间分布上存在较为明显的季节性和周期性,呈现双峰分布:发病主要集中在5—10月(737例,占85.50%),其中6—7月和9—10月出现2个发病高峰。不同地区中,报告年均发病率较高的是海沧区(3.56/10万)、思明区(2.64/10万)和同安区(1.95/10万)。人群分布上,报告病例的男女比例为1.09∶1,男女报告发病率均为2.06/10万;报告病例平均年龄(46.97±17.35)岁,发病年龄主要集中在40~69岁(547例,占63.46%),其中50~59岁年龄组的报告病例数最多(228例,占26.45%),60~69岁年龄组的报告发病率最高(6.75/10万);不同职业中,家务及待业人群的报告病例数最多(208例,占24.13%),其次为农民(197例,占22.85%)。报告病例从发病到诊断的时间间隔中位数为7(4,12)d。SARI-MA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)[12]模型可以较好地预测厦门市恙虫病流行趋势(RMSE=0.50,R2=0.75),对2023、2024和2025年发病数的预测值分别为42例、39例和36例。对2023年1—9月的预测数据进行验证,实际发病数据均位于SARIMA模型的预测区间(RMSE=7.84,R~2=0.76)。结论 厦门市恙虫病发病率总体呈波动下降趋势,2023—2025年预计将保持中等流行水平。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in Xiamen City in recent years and predict the epidemic trend,so as to provide a foundation for scientific development of local preventive and control measures.Methods Data on reported cases of scrub typhus were collected in Xiamen City from 2013 to 2022,and de-scriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of time,spatial and regional distribution of the infection.In addition,the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model was used to estimate the incidence trend in 2023-2025.Results From 2013 to 2022,a total of 862 cases of scrub typhus were reported in Xia-men.The average annual incidence rate was 2.06/100000,with fluctuating downward trend in incidence rates in differ-ent years in general(χ2trend=170.74,P<0.05).The temporal distribution had a more pronounced seasonality and periodici-ty,showing a bimodal distribution.The onset of the disease was mainly observed in May-October(737 cases,85.50%),with 2 peaks occurring in June-July and September-October.Among the different regions,the higher average annual in-cidence rates were reported in Haicang District(3.56/100000),Siming District(2.64/100000)and Tong'an District(1.95/100000).The male-to-female ratio of reported cases in the population distribution was 1.09∶1,and the reported in-cidence rate for both sexes was 2.06/100000.The average age of reported cases was(46.97±17.35)years old,and the age of onset was primarily seen in the age group of 40-69 years old(547 cases,63.46%).The highest number of report-ed cases was seen in the age group of 50-59 years old(228 cases,26.45%),and the prevalence was the highest in popu-lation aged 60-69 years old(6.75/100000).Of the different occupations,the highest number of reported cases was found in population of housework and the unemployed(208 cases,24.13%),followed by farmers(197 cases,22.85%).The median time interval between onset and diagnosis of the reported cases was 7(4,12)d.The SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)[12]model could better predict the prevalence trend of scrub typhus in Xiamen City(RMSE=0.50,R2=0.75),and the pre-dicted values for the number of cases in 2023,2024 and 2025 were 42,39 and 36 cases,respectively.The predicted data from January to September 2023 were validated,and the actual incidence data were all located in the prediction interval of the SARIMA model(RMSE=7.84,R2=0.76).Conclusion The incidence of scrub typhus in Xiamen is generally fluctuating and decreasing,and is expected to remain at a moderate epidemic level from 2023 to 2025.
作者
黄佳峰
钟春燕
柯雪梅
王明斋
黄仕杰
HUANG Jiafeng;ZHONG Chunyan;KE Xuemei;WANG Mingzhai;HUANG Shijie(Siming District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen 361009,Fujian Province,China;Xiamen City Center for Disease Control and Prevention)
出处
《热带病与寄生虫学》
CAS
2023年第6期315-320,共6页
Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology
基金
福建省科技厅引导性项目(2021D007)。
关键词
恙虫病
流行病学特征
趋势预测
厦门市
Scrub typhus
Epidemiological characteristics
Trend prediction
Xiamen City
作者简介
黄佳峰,男,本科,主治医师,研究方向:传染病控制。E-mail:534086613@qq.com;通信作者:柯雪梅,E-mail:Xmke023@126.com;通信作者:王明斋,E-mail:32639937@qq.com。
