摘要
重大突发公共卫生事件下,应急医疗物资的准确预测和合理配置对遏制疫情的发展具有重要意义.文章致力于开展应急医疗物资配置路径优化研究,以此保障应急医疗物资快速准确到达需求节点.首先,采用贝叶斯序贯决策模型对重大突发公共卫生事件感染率进行预测,在准确获取预测结果的基础上,依据感染人数与所需应急医疗物资之间的数量关系,计算每个需求节点的需求量.其次,根据需求节点所需应急医疗物资数量,建立应急医疗物资配置模型.再者,构建自适应大邻域搜索粒子群算法对模型进行求解,并通过多组算例验证了该算法的有效性和准确性.最后,以新冠肺炎疫情爆发阶段的武汉市的情况为例,考虑了八种应急医疗物资并对其进行预测,选取武汉定点医疗机构为需求节点,进行路径优化求解并得到最优配置路线.该研究通过事先预测应急医疗物资需求量,并据此优化应急医疗物资配送路线,更加精准、高效地实现了应急医疗物资优化配置.
Under the major public health emergency,the accurate prediction and rational allocation of emergency medical supplies are of great significance to curb the development of the COVID-19 outbreak.This paper focuses on the optimization of the allocation path of emergency medical supplies to ensure that emergency medical supplies reach the demand nodes quickly and accurately.Firstly,the Bayesian sequential decision-making model is used to predict the infection rate of the COVID-19.On this basis,the demand of each demand node is calculated according to the relationship between the number of infected people and the quantity of emergency medical supplies.Secondly,the emergency medical supplies allocation model is established based on to the number of emergency medical supplies required by the demand nodes.Thirdly,a particle swarm optimization-adaptive large neighborhood search,(PSOALNS)algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model,and then the validity and accuracy of the algorithm are verified through several sets of numerical examples.Finally,taking the outbreak stage of the COVID-19 in Wuhan as an example,this paper considers eight types of emergency medical supplies and predicts their demands,the designated medical institutions in Wuhan are selected as the demand nodes,and the path optimization is solved and the optimal configuration route is obtained.By predicting the demand for emergency medical materials in advance and optimizing the emergency medical supplies distribution route accordingly,this study can achieve the optimal allocation of emergency medical supplies more accurately and efficiently.
作者
缑迅杰
李童
刘菲
邓富民
徐泽水
GOU Xunjie;LI Tong;LIU Fei;DENG Fumin;XU Zeshui(Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期3126-3147,共22页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金(20BGL268,22FGLB005)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72271173)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC630030)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2020M680151)
四川大学建设世界一流大学经费(2021CXC21)资助课题.
关键词
应急医疗物资配置
需求预测
路径优化
粒子群算法
自适应大邻域搜索
Emergency medical supplies allocation
demand prediction
path optimization
particle swarm optimization
adaptive large neighborhood search
作者简介
通信作者:邓富民,Email:dengfm@scu.edu.cn.
