摘要
推动经济社会可持续发展是推进中国式现代化建设,实现人与自然和谐共生,贯彻落实新发展理念的关键途径。构建了由创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享5个一级指标,消除贫困、消除饥饿等17个SDGs二级指标和63个三级指标所组成的可持续发展能力评价指标体系,建立了基于麻雀算法的投影寻踪模型和模糊逻辑模型分别对2015~2020年长江经济带可持续发展能力维度发展水平和综合发展水平进行评价,探索长江经济带可持续发展的空间关联特征。结果表明:(1)从维度评价结果来看,2015~2020年长江经济带可持续发展情况不一,创新、绿色、共享、协调、开放发展水平分别提升26.51%、30.37%、18.6%、17.86%、3.00%。(2)从综合评价结果来看,根据2015~2020年长江经济带可持续发展能力平均水平可将不同省市划分为3个梯队:60~80分为第一梯队,分别是上海、江苏和浙江;40~60分为第二梯队,包括安徽、湖北、湖南、江西、重庆和四川等地;20~40分为第三梯队,分别是云南和贵州。(3)从空间关联特征来看,可持续发展能力存在空间依赖和空间联系,但空间关联存在不稳定性,波动较大,具体表现为高-高集聚区数量减少,集中分布在下游的上海、江苏、浙江等地,低-高集聚区处于动态变化中,分布在中游地区的湖南、湖北、江西等地,低-低集聚区数量保持稳定,分布在上游的四川、贵州、云南等地。
Promoting sustainable economic and social development is a key concept in advocating the Chinese path to modernization,realizing the harmonious coexistence between human and nature,and implementing a new development concept.This paper constructed a sustainable development capacity evaluation index system consisting of 5 primary indicators of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing,17 secondary indicators of SDGs such as poverty eradication,hunger eradication,and 63 tertiary indicators.A projection tracing model based on the Sparrow algorithm and a fuzzy logic model were established to evaluate the dimensional development level and the comprehensive development level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2020 in order to explore its spatial correlation characteristics of sustainable development.The study showed that:(1)From the dimensional evaluation results,sustainable development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was not equivalent.The level of innovation,green,sharing,coordination and open development increased by 26.51%,30.37%,18.6%,17.86%and 3.00%,respectively.(2)From the comprehensive evaluation results,different provinces and cities could be divided into three echelons according to the average level of sustainable development capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt:60-80 were in the first tier,including Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang;40-60 were as the second,including Anhui,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Chongqing and Sichuan;20-40 were the third,including Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.(3)In terms of the evolution of the spatial correlation characteristics,the sustainable development capability had spatial dependencies and linkages,but the spatial correlations were unstable with a large fluctuation.Specifically,the number of high-high agglomerations decreased,which were concentrated in the downstream region of Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang.The number of low-high agglomerations were in a dynamic change,which were distributed in the midstream region of Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi etc.The number of low-low agglomerations remained relatively stable,which were distributed in the upstream region of Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan etc.
作者
袁亮
祁煜智
何伟军
吴霞
YUAN Liang;QI Yu-zhi;HE Wei-jun;WU Xia(School of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang443002,China;School of Law and Public Administration,China Three Gorges University,Yichang443002,China)
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期1993-2005,共13页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(2019ZDA089)。
关键词
新发展理念
可持续发展能力
长江经济带
空间特征
new development concept
sustainable development capacity
Yangtze River Economic Belt
spatial characteristics
作者简介
袁亮(1987-),男,副教授,主要研究方向为生态补偿与可持续发展.E-mail:liangyuan@ctgu.edu.cn;通讯作者:祁煜智,E-mail:Qiyz@ctgu.edu.cn。
