摘要
防喷器是防止井喷等重大事故的最后一道防线,其一旦失效,将会严重危害海洋平台人员和设备的安全,并且造成难以估量的损失。目前,国内外无统一的防喷器判废标准,且相关判废标准定性描述较多,适用性差。针对这些问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的防喷器概率性判废分级评定方法。首先,根据判废标准对评定对象进行标准判定。其次,考虑自身缺陷和外在因素对判废结果的影响,分别对其进行缺陷安全评定和风险性评定。最后,综合标准判定、缺陷评定和风险性评定结果得到防喷器当前状态下的判废等级。以某FZ35-70型闸板防喷器为例,得到了该闸板防喷器的判废等级和对应的维修建议,验证了所提出方法的可行性,为制定防喷器判废规则提供参考。
A blowout preventer is the last line of defense against major accidents such as offshore blowouts.Once the blowout preventer fails,it will seriously endanger the safety of personnel on the offshore platform and cause inestimable losses.At present,there is no unified standard for blowout preventer rejection judgment at home and abroad,and the related standards have many qualitative descriptions and poor applicability.In order to solve these problems,a probabilistic evaluation method based on the Bayesian network was proposed.The evaluation object was judged according to the nullification standard.Considering the influence of their own defects and external factors on the results of the rejection,the defect safety assessment and risk assessment were carried out respectively.The results of standard assessment,defect assessment,and risk assessment were combined to obtain the status of the blowout preventer in its current state.Taking a certain FZ35-70 ram blowout preventer as an example,the scrap grade of the ram blowout preventer and corresponding maintenance suggestions were obtained,which verified the feasibility of the proposed method and provides a reference for formulating the rejection rule of the blowout preventer.
作者
吴奇兵
赵丽倩
陈泽光
李文涛
刘可扬
陈明新
蔡宝平
葛伟凤
WU Qibing;ZHAO Liqian;CHEN Zeguang;LI Wentao;LIU Keyang;CHEN Mingxin;CAI Baoping;GE Weifeng(CNOOC Safety&Technology Service Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300450,China;College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China;Safety&Environmental Protection Branch,CNOOC EnerTech,Tianjin 300450,China)
出处
《石油矿场机械》
CAS
2023年第6期1-9,共9页
Oil Field Equipment
基金
国家重点研发计划“深水生产系统泄漏检测及应急处置技术与装备”(2022YFC2806100)及“水下生产系统数字化自主型预测与生产优化研究及应用示范”(2019YFE0105100)
海油发展科技重大专项“海上石油设施本质安全一体化技术研究”(Ⅰ期)子课题——“海上生产设备风险动态量化分析与控制技术研究”(HFKJ-2D2X-AQ-2021-03)。
关键词
防喷器
概率性判废
分级评定
贝叶斯网络
blowout preventer
probabilistic invalidation
grading and evaluation
bayesian network
作者简介
吴奇兵(1986-),男,高级工程师,主要研究方向为风险评估、安全产品研发,E-mail:wuqb@cnooc.com.cn。
