经济政策不确定性对长三角城市群出口技术复杂度的影响研究

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Urban Export Technological Complexity of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

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摘要经济政策不确定性对长三角城市群出口技术复杂度影响的实证研究表明:经济政策不确定性增加会通过外商直接投资和技术创新影响长三角城市群出口技术复杂度,且两者关系表现出“边际效应”递增的非线性特征。从区域差异来看,经济政策不确定性对长三角中心区城市的出口技术复杂度影响更为显著;从政策差异来看,财政政策、贸易政策的不确定性对长三角城市群出口技术复杂度提升具有正向促进作用,货币政策和汇率政策的不确定性则产生了负向影响。政府应关注经济政策不确定性的区域效应,充分发挥中心区城市的带动作用,加强产业集聚和升级,提高各城市出口产品技术含量,促进长三角城市群的外贸高质量发展。 Based on the panel data of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on export technology complexity of urban agglomeration in the region by using the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.The results show that economic policy uncertainty affects the technological complexity of export through foreign direct investment and technological innovation that demonstrate a nonlinear incremental marginal effect.From the perspective of regional differences,economic policy uncertainty has a more significant impact on the export technological complexity of the cities in the central Yangtze River Delta;from the perspective of policy differences,the uncertainty of fiscal policy and trade policy has a positive role in promoting the export technological complexity of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta,while the uncertainty of monetary policy and exchange rate policy has a negative impact.So,the government should pay attention to the regional effect of economic policy uncertainty,give full play to the leading role of the central cities,strengthen industrial agglomeration and upgrading,improve the technical content of export products,and promote the high-quality development of foreign trade of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta.

作者赵巍杨静茹张纪凤 Zhao Wei;Yang Jingru;Zhang Jifeng(School of Business,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005;China(Wuxi)Cross-Border Electronic Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone,Wuxi Institute,Wuxi 214105,China)

机构地区江苏海洋大学商学院无锡学院中国(无锡)跨境电商综合试验区研究院

出处《江苏大学学报（社会科学版）》 CSSCI 2023年第6期84-100,共17页 Journal of Jiangsu University(Social Science Edition)

基金江苏省社会科学基金一般项目(23GLB003)。

关键词经济政策不确定性城市出口技术复杂度长三角城市群外商直接投资技术创新 economic policy uncertainty city export technological complexity the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration foreign direct investment technological innovation

分类号 F752.62 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介赵巍,江苏海洋大学商学院研究员,无锡学院中国(无锡)跨境电商综合试验区研究院研究员,管理学博士,从事国际经济分析研究;杨静茹,江苏海洋大学商学院硕士研究生,从事国际商务研究。