摘要
传统产业转型升级是推进京津冀协同发展战略的重要抓手。本文以京津冀协同发展战略出台以来颁布的传统产业转型升级促进政策为研究样本进行文本计量分析,采用面板数据双重固定效应模型以及分省份的回归模型分析发现,京津冀出台的传统产业政策数量增加对三地的经济增长起到显著正向作用,并且在其他条件不变的情况下,每增加一条相关传统产业政策将会边际带动京津冀地区GDP增长0.2%。河北省每增加一条相关传统产业政策将会边际带动当地GDP增长0.1%,说明河北省出台的传统产业相关政策对当地的经济增长起到了积极影响,而北京和天津的传统产业相关政策对经济增长的拉动作用并没有那么明显,表明传统产业的转型升级更倾向于依托当地的政策变化,并据此提出相关政策建议。
The traditional industry transformation and upgrade is an important way to promote the coordinated development strategy of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.This paper takes the policy of promoting transformation and upgrading of traditional industries since the introduction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy as research samples to carry out text econometric analysis,and adopts panel data dual fixed-effect model and regression model.The analysis shows that the number of traditional industry transformation and upgrade policies issued the industrial policies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has a positive impact on the local economic growth,and if other conditions remain unchanged,each additional traditional industrial policy will marginally drive the local GDP growth of 0.2%.Among the industrial policies in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province,only the traditional industry promotion policies issued by Hebei Province have a positive impact on the local economic growth.Besides,each additional traditional industrial policy in Hebei Province will marginally drive the local GDP growth of 0.1%,while the traditional industry-related policies introduced by Beijing and Tianjin have not played a significant role in economic growth,indicating that the traditional industry transformation and upgrade are more likely to rely on local policy changes.Policy suggestions are put forward accordingly.
作者
傅娟
杨皓森
Fu Juan;Yang Haosen(Big Data Development Department,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2023年第6期20-28,共9页
Exploration of Financial Theory
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“基于多源大数据的京津冀产业协同发展模式及效果评价研究”(19BJL082)。
关键词
京津冀协同发展
传统产业
转型升级
政策
效果
coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
traditional industry
transformation and upgrading
policy
effect
作者简介
傅娟,女,新疆昌吉人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为大数据宏观经济预测、区域与产业经济;杨皓森,男,四川南充人,博士,研究方向为经济预测、产业转型与升级。
