摘要
为研究气候变化下不同管理措施对淮河流域稻麦轮作农田生态系统CH_(4)通量的影响,通过参数率定后的DNDC(DeNitrification-DeComposition)模型,估算了淮河流域历史时期(2000—2020年)及未来(2021—2049年)RCP4.5(中等排放强度情景)和RCP8.5(高排放强度情景)两种情景下稻麦轮作农田CH_(4)通量时空分布特征,评估了未来气候变化下多种田间管理措施对流域CH_(4)的减排能力。结果表明:淮河流域历史时期区域CH_(4)通量平均排放强度为125.3 kg·hm^(-2),未来两种情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下区域CH_(4)通量平均排放强度分别为140.5 kg·hm^(-2)和150.5 kg·hm^(-2),总体均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.01)。空间上,未来两种情景下CH_(4)通量空间分布特征相似,均呈现南部和西北部地区CH_(4)通量高,东北部和中西部地区CH_(4)通量低的特征。与基础措施相比,不同施肥量措施均减少了CH_(4)排放,但不同秸秆还田措施提高了CH_(4)排放水平。研究表明,在仅考虑控制淮河流域CH_(4)通量的情况下,秸秆不还田+减量施肥20%是未来气候变化情景下最佳田间管理措施。
To study the impact of different management measures on CH_(4)fluxes in rice-wheat rotation cropland ecosystems in the Huai River Basin under future climate change scenarios,the CH_(4)fluxes and their spatiotemporal characteristics during the historical period(2000—2020)and the future(2021—2049)under RCP4.5(medium emission intensity)and RCP8.5(high emission intensity)scenarios were estimated using the DeNitrification-DeComposition(DNDC)model following parameter calibration.Compared with the basic measure during the historical period,the CH_(4)reduction capacities of different field management measures were evaluated under different future climate change scenarios.The following results were obtained.The average emission intensity of regional CH_(4)flux in the basin during the historical period was 125.3 kg·hm^(-2),whereas those in the future were 140.5 kg·hm^(-2) and 150.5 kg·hm^(-2) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,they all exhibited significant upward trends(P<0.01).The spatial distribution characteristics of CH_(4)flux were similar under the two future scenarios,with high and low CH_(4)fluxes in the southern and northwestern and northeastern and central western regions,respectively.Compared with the basic measure,different fertilizer application measures reduced CH_(4)emissions,whereas straw returning measures increased them.Hence,when only CH_(4)flux in the Huai River Basin was regulated,the optimal field management measure under the two future climate change scenarios was no return straw to the field with a 20%reduction in fertilizer application.
作者
虞晓兰
张方敏
方砚秋
卢燕宇
张凯迪
倪婷
YU Xiaolan;ZHANG Fangmin;FANG Yanqiu;LU Yanyu;ZHANG Kaidi;NI Ting(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China;Shouxian National Climatology Observatory,Huai River Basin Typical Farm Eco-meteorological Experiment Field of CMA,Shouxian 232200,China)
出处
《农业环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期2346-2357,共12页
Journal of Agro-Environment Science
基金
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金(BK20220017)
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金(2021SYIAEKFMS37)
中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSQ011)。
作者简介
虞晓兰(1998—),女,江苏常熟人,硕士研究生,从事气候变化研究,E-mail:xiaolan-yu@qq.com;通信作者:张方敏,E-mail:fmin.zhang@nuist.edu.cn。
