摘要
针对松材线虫病的在森林传播会导致毁灭性病虫害问题,以松褐天牛在松材线虫传播过程中的媒介作用为基础,构建了基于饱和发生率、人工防治延迟时滞等非线性变化特征的生态侵染模型.模型将媒介昆虫分为易感天牛和染病天牛,通过分析饱和发生率、人工防治时滞对生态系统稳定性的影响,模拟求解并预测松材线虫病对森林生态侵染的发生趋势.案例研究的结果表明:当人工防治不存在时间延迟(τ=0)时,天牛种群将在一段时间后达到稳态,病害不会发生大规模爆发;当人工防治力度低于24%左右时,易感天牛和染病天牛的种群数量随防治呈上升趋势,无法达到防治效果;当人工防治力度超过24%左右时,防治力度越强,染病天牛的种群数量越少且减小速率越快,可以达到防治效果;人工防治延迟的临界时滞为16 d.
The spread of pine wilt disease in forest will lead to devastating pests and diseases.Based on the medium role of Monochamus alternatus in the spread of pine wilt disease,an ecological infection model with nonlinear change such as saturation incidence and the time-delay of the disease control was developed.The model divides the medium insects into susceptible longicorn beetles and infected longicorn beetles,then simulates and predicts the occurrence trend of pine wilt disease on forest ecological infection by analyzing the effects of saturation incidence and the time-delay of the disease control on stability of ecosystem.The results of the case study show that when there is no time-delay in the disease control,the population of longhorn beetles can reach stability after a period of time,and the disease dese not occur large-scale outbreak.When the intensity of the disease control is less than about 24%,the population of susceptible and infected longhorn beetles increased with the control,which leads to inability of achieving the control effect;when the intensity of the disease control is more than about 24%,with the increase of the intensity of the disease control,the population of infected longhorn beetles becomes less and the rate of decrease becomes faster,which can achieve the control effect,and the critical time-delay of the delayed disease control is about 16 days.
作者
董瑞林
侯艳闯
丁宇婷
Dong Ruilin;Hou Yanchuang;Ding Yuting(College of Mathematics,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期92-102,共11页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis
关键词
松材线虫病
饱和发生率
人工防治时滞
生态侵染模型
Hopf分支规范型
临界时滞
pine wilt disease
saturation incidence
time-delay of the disease control
ecological infection model
normal form of Hopf bifurcation
critical time-delay
作者简介
董瑞林(2002-),女,山东东营人,本科生;通讯作者:丁宇婷(1984-),女,吉林榆树人,副教授,研究方向:泛函微分方程及其应用,生态系统与环境污染防治的数学模拟及应用.E-mail:yuting840810@163.com。
