海外市场“扎堆”是否会挤压企业出口规模?——我国制造企业的贸易规模分析被引量：1

Will the Overseas Market“Crowded”Squeeze the Export Scale of Enterprises?:Analysis of Trade Scale of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

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摘要新冠疫情、俄乌战争等不利因素,叠加大量实体制造企业出走,我国外贸压力不断增加。分析企业出口与海外市场竞争环境之间的关系,根据CES市场需求函数推导出一种基于理论的计量经济模型,将针对特定目的地的出口、市场需求以及市场拥挤程度等因素联系起来。基于2010—2016年我国上市制造企业的样本数据对模型进行估计与分析,并使用结果进行反事实检验。结果表明:市场拥挤程度、贸易距离和企业单位生产成本会对企业出口额以及出口概率产生显著的负向作用。涉足出口外贸企业数量的增加、成本的控制以及目的地市场的关税与距离降低,会使我国企业在样本期内的出口规模降低。而在总体上,受到市场拥挤程度冲击而贸易规模损失程度最小的是具有研发型、国有控股以及涉足跨国经营特征的三类企业。因此,有序的国际贸易秩序在出口环境非友好的当下显得尤为重要,扩大国内产业规模、增加研发投入有助于企业走出去获得海外市场。 Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic,the Russia-Ukraine war and other adverse factors,a large number of manufacturing enterprises have left,increasing the pressure on China s foreign trade.This paper analyzes the relationship between enterprise export and foreign market competition environment.A theory-based econometric model is derived from the CES market demand function to relate factors such as the export,market demand and the degree of“crowding”of the market for specific destination countries(regions).The above model is estimated and analyzed based on a large sample of Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2016,and the results are used for counterfactual test.The estimated results show that the degree of market congestion,trade distance and unit production cost have a significant negative effect on the export volume and export probability.The increase in the number of enterprises involved in export trade,the control of costs and the reduction of the tariff and distance in the destination market will reduce the export scale of Chinese enterprises in the sample period.On the whole,the three types of enterprises with the characteristics of research and development,state holding and multinational operation are affected by the degree of market congestion and the smallest loss of trade scale.This paper is helpful to analyze trade integration under the background of globalization from the broader enterprise level.It also provides suggestions and references for the implementation of the“go global”strategy for Chinese enterprises.

作者肖挺高阿雪曾若宇 XIAO Ting;GAO A-xue;ZENG Ruo-yu

机构地区江西财经大学国际经贸学院

出处《产经评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第3期100-114,共15页 Industrial Economic Review

基金国家自然科学基金地区项目“制造企业业务维度对服务化收益影响机制研究:基于与服务供应商合作关系的视角”(项目编号:72262015,项目负责人:肖挺) 江西省教育厅科技项目“信号理论视角下制造企业‘服务化困境’问题的实证评估”(项目编号:GJJ210522,项目负责人:肖挺)。

关键词出口规模市场拥挤生产成本反事实 export scale market congestion the cost of production counterfactual

分类号 F752.62 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介肖挺,江西财经大学国际经贸学院教授、博士生导师,研究方向:国际商务理论;高阿雪,江西财经大学国际经贸学院硕士研究生,研究方向:国际商务理论;曾若宇,江西财经大学国际经贸学院硕士研究生,研究方向:国际商务理论。