摘要
通过构建变化环境下北京市水资源利用系统动力学模型,设计10小类情景,对2022—2030年北京市水资源生态足迹进行预测与评价。结果表明:(1)2022—2030年,各情景下人均水资源生态足迹呈下降趋势(情景CC-wet除外),均值0.414~0.475 hm^(2)/人,人均水资源生态承载力呈下降趋势,均值0.101~0.139 hm^(2)/人,人均水资源生态赤字均值0.293~0.367 hm^(2)/人,水资源生态压力指数呈波动变化趋势,均值3.225~4.608,将面临水资源不安全利用局面,水资源生态足迹强度呈显著下降趋势,均值0.013~0.024 hm^(2)/万元,水资源利用效率不断提高;(2)气候越湿润,北京市水资源生态足迹、生态赤字、生态压力及生态足迹强度越小,反之亦然;(3)经济快速发展对水资源生态足迹、生态承载力、生态赤字和生态压力指数产生显著影响,南水北调工程对水资源生态足迹和生态赤字有缩减效果,畜牧业节水对水资源生态足迹相关指标影响较小;(4)北京市在未来要兼顾经济发展和水资源保护,采取措施应对气候变化影响,充分利用南水北调工程,不断提高节水意识和用水效率,多管齐下促进经济和水资源可持续发展。
Ten sub-categories of scenarios are designed based on the system dynamics model for water resource utilization in Beijing to predict and evaluate the water resource ecological footprint in Beijing from^(2)022 to 2030 under the influence of changing environment.The results show that:①From 2022 to 2030,the water resource ecological footprint per capita under each scenario shows a downward trend(except for the scenario CC-wet),with an average value of 0.414~0.475 hm^(2)per capita.The water resource ecological carrying capacity per capita shows a downward trend,with an average value of 0.101~0.139 hm^(2)per capita.The average value of water resource ecological deficit per capita is 0.293~0.367 hm^(2)per capita.The water resource ecological pressure index shows a fluctuating trend,with an average value of 3.225~4.608,and Beijing will face the situation of water resource unsafe utilization.The water resource ecological footprint intensity shows a significant downward trend,with an average of 0.013~0.024 hm^(2)/104 RMB,and the water resource utilization efficiency in Beijing is constantly improving.②As the climate is wetter,the ecological footprint,ecological deficit,ecological pressure,and ecological footprint intensity of water resources are smaller in Beijing and vice versa.③Rapid economic development has a significant influence on the ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity,ecological deficit,and ecological pressure index of water resources.The South-to-North Water Diversion Project(SNWDP)has an immediate effect on reducing the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of water resources.Water saving in animal husbandry has a small influence on the indicators related to the water resource ecological footprint.④In its future development,Beijing should consider both economic development and water resource protection,take measures to deal with the possible influence of climate change,make full use of the SNWDP in promoting the sustainable use of water resources,and constantly improve the awareness of water conservation and the efficiency of production and domestic water use in the whole society,promoting the sustainable development and utilization of social economy and water resources in the capital through multi-pronged efforts.
作者
秦欢欢
黄丽想
王健泉
QIN Huanhuan;HUANG Lixiang;WANG Jianquan(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2023年第8期25-35,共11页
Pearl River
基金
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)。
关键词
水资源生态足迹
水资源生态承载力
可持续水资源利用
系统动力学
北京市
water resource ecological footprint
water resource ecological carrying capacity
sustainable water resource utilization
system dynamics
Beijing
作者简介
秦欢欢(1986-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为水文学与水资源。E-mail:qhhasn@126.com。
