摘要
达摩沟小流域历史上曾发生泥石流灾害事件,造成较大人员伤亡和财产损失。目前,该小流域主沟堆积大量煤矸石,主沟两侧坡面堆积有较多崩、坡积物。为分析泥石流再次发生的可能性与危险性,在无人机摄影测量和野外现场调查的基础上,详细分析达摩沟小流域泥石流发育条件,基于改进MacCormack-TVD有限差分法,采用Massflow软件对10,20,50,100 a一遇4种降雨概率条件下达摩沟暴发泥石流的工况进行数值模拟,得到达摩沟小流域在不同降雨概率下的泥石流危险性。结果表明:①在此4种降雨概率下,大部分区域的泥石流流速维持在0~3 m/s,泥深保持在0~4 m的水平,而峰值流量最大可达19 m/s,泥深最大可达3.85 m;②在100 a一遇的降雨强度下,达摩沟高危险性地区占16.54%,中风险地区占49.27%,低风险地区占34.19%;③模拟结果较好地符合泥石流的时空发育特征,展现了降雨强度对泥石流运动的影响规律,可为泥石流的预警监测提供参考。
Mudslide disaster events had occurred in the Dharma Gully sub-basin area historically and caused a large casualties and property losses.At present,a large amount of coal gangue was piled up in the main ditch of the sub-basin,and more landslide deposits were accumulated on both slopes sides of the main ditch.In order to analyze the possibility and risk of mudslides reoccurring,this paper analyzed the development of mudslides in Dharma Gully sub-basin area in detail through UAV photogrammetry and field investigation.Based on the improved MacCormack-TVD finite difference method,the Massflow software was used to simulate the mudslide conditions and obtained the mudslide risk in Dharma Gully under 4 rainfall probabilities of 10years,20years,50years,and 100years.The results showed that:①Under the above 4 rainfall probabilities,the flow velocity of debris flow in most areas was 0~3 m/s,the mud depth was 0~4 m.The maximum flow rate could reach 19 m/s,and the maximum mud depth could reach 3.85 m;②Under the rainfall of 100-year,the high-risk areas in Damogou accounted for 16.54%,the medium-risk areas accounted for 49.27%,and the low-risk areas accounted for 34.19%;③The simulation results reproduced the temporal and spatial development characteristics of debris flow well,showed the influence of rainfall intensity on the movement of debris flow,which could provide some references for the early warning and monitoring of debris flow.
作者
杨鑫
孟华君
路璐
王宇
吴季寰
YANG Xin;MENG Huajun;LU Lu;WANG Yu;WU Jihuan(Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Civil and Resources Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Neotectonic Movement and Geohazard,Beijing 100081,China;Observation and Research Station of Geological Disaster in Baoji,Shaanxi Province,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Geological Research Institute,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2023年第8期146-152,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学重点基金项目(42130720)
全国地质灾害风险区划技术方法研究(DD20221738)
北京市科技计划课题(Z191100001419015)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0902)。
作者简介
杨鑫,男,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害数值模拟及危险性研究工作。E-mail:13260396266@163.com;通信作者:孟华君,男,副研究员,博士,主要从事地质灾害和地质环境等方面的研究工作。E-mail:mhjun521@cags.ac.cn。
