摘要
针对长江下游水道通航安全风险评价中存在的定量研究不足的问题,基于5M模型(Management,Machine,Man,Me-dia,Mission factor)构建了因子分析方法,利用该方法对长江下游水道历年发生的258件较大伤亡事故和223件较小伤亡事故案例进行主要影响因素分析,结果表明能见度不良、船舶交通流量大、船员安全意识薄弱、船舶设备陈旧是导致交通事故的主要因素。利用事故主要因素覆盖率和影响率对基于5M的因子分析法进行效果评价,并与统计分析法比较,结果表明:因子分析法的覆盖率虽然略有下降,但是影响率提高了56.4%。实例验证说明基于5M的因子分析法用于长江下游水道通航安全风险定量分析是可行的。
Due to the lack of quantitative research in the risk assessment of navigation safety in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River,a factor analysis method based on 5M model(management,machine,man,media,mission factor)is proposed,the main influencing factors of 258 major and 223 minor casualty accidents in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River were analyzed by using this method,the results show that poor visibility,large traffic flow,weak safety awareness of crew and outdated ship equipment are the main factors leading to traffic accidents.The effect of factor analysis based on 5M was evaluated by using the coverage rate and influence rate of main factors of accident,and compared with the statistical analysis;the results showed that the coverage rate of factor analysis was slightly lower than that of statistical analysis,but the impact rate increased by 56.4%.The case study shows that the factor analysis method based on 5M is feasible for the navigation safety risk quantitative analysis of the lower waterways of the Yangtze River.
作者
张树奎
熊丁
ZHANG Shu-kui;XIONG Ding(Jiangsu Maritime Institute,Nanjing 211170,China)
出处
《武汉船舶职业技术学院学报》
2023年第4期79-82,100,共5页
Journal of Wuhan Institute of Shipbuilding Technology
作者简介
张树奎,男,博士,教授,研究方向:港口、海岸与近海工程。
