摘要
为促进交通运输结构优化调整,助力绿色低碳交通高质量发展,本文开展了城市公共客运交通CO_(2)排放及大气环境影响中长期预测的实证研究。针对全国范围公共客运交通不同运输方式CO_(2)排放及环境影响的中长期预测方法不清和数据积累不全的问题,构建公共客运交通CO_(2)排放微观测算模型;综合考虑旅客周转量中长期增长趋势与交通运输行为微观特征,提出基于动态线性增长模型的公共客运交通CO_(2)排放中长期预测方法;构建基于线性气候响应的大气环境模型交通CO_(2)排放环境影响预测模型,实现宏观层面全国客运交通CO_(2)排放大气环境影响的中长期预测。选取城市公共客运交通中的城市轨道交通、传统/新能源巡游出租车、传统/新能源公共汽电车,以及城际长途客运交通中的铁路和民航等几种主要公共客运交通运输方式,对本文所提方法进行实例验证。结果表明,未来10年我国公共客运交通CO_(2)排放量总体呈上升趋势,民航CO_(2)排放的体量最大,其排放占比将达到71.72%;公共客运交通CO_(2)排放对环境影响呈逐年快速增长趋势,民航对环境影响最大,占比高达69.26%,城市轨道交通的环境影响最小,占比仅为1.35%。
This paper proposes a novel medium-and long-term prediction method for carbon dioxide emissions and their atmospheric environmental impact on public passenger transportation,which can facilitate the improvement of transportation structure and the high-quality development of green low-carbon transportation.To handle the issue of unclear method and incomplete data accumulation of carbon emissions and their atmospheric environmental impact in China's public passenger transportation,a micro calculation model for carbon dioxide emissions from public passenger transportation is proposed in this paper.Then a new medium-and long-term prediction method for carbon dioxide emissions is presented based on a dynamic linear model,which can accurately capture the development trend of transportation demand and micro characteristics of transportation behavior.On this basis,a linear climate response model-based carbon dioxide emissions prediction method is proposed to forecast the medium-and long-term atmospheric environmental impact of the carbon emissions from China's public passenger transportation.Several major public passenger transportation modes,including urban rail transit,traditional&new energy cruise taxis,traditional&new energy buses,high-speed rail,and civil aviation,are studied to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that carbon emissions from China's public passenger transportation will keep rising in the next 10 years,with the largest amount of carbon emissions from civil aviation accounting for 71.72%.Besides,the impact of the carbon emissions from public passenger transport on the atmospheric environment will increase rapidly as well,where civil aviation has the largest impact accounting for 69.26%,and urban rail transit has the smallest impact accounting for 1.35%.
作者
陈丹
于慧
汤程
陈志雄
汤淼
CHEN Dan;YU Hui;TANG Cheng;CHEN Zhi-xiong;TANG Miao(School of Automotive&Rail Transit,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China;School of Air Transportation,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《交通运输系统工程与信息》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期1-10,共10页
Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(61903185)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20191014)
2023年江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划省级重点项目(202311276042Z)。
关键词
综合运输
CO_(2)排放
中长期预测
大气环境影响
AGTP
绿色交通
integrated transportation
carbon dioxide emissions
medium-long term prediction
atmospheric environment impact
AGTP
green transportation
作者简介
通信作者:陈丹(1988-),女,湖北荆州人,讲师,博士。chendan@njit.edu.cn。
