摘要
结合2005—2020年的样本数据,运用Tapio脱钩模型、IPAT模型以及情景分析法,分析和预测陕西省能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩关系。结果显示,2005—2020年,除2015年陕西省能源消耗与经济增长呈扩张负脱钩外,其余年份均为弱脱钩,即经济增长的速度高于能源消耗增长的速度。未来十年,若能源消耗强度维持在较低水平的情景设定下,陕西省能源消耗与经济增长将会呈现强脱钩状态。为实现陕西省能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩,相关部门应制定政策,有效落实,优化绿色低碳发展区域布局、推动产业结构绿色低碳升级、着力构建清洁低碳安全高效能源体系,在保证经济持续稳定增长的同时,顺利实现碳达峰、碳中和目标。
The decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Shaanxi Province was analyzed and predicted using the Tapio decoupling model,the IPAT model and scenario analysis with the sample data from 2005 to 2020.The results show that from 2005 to 2020,except for 2015 when energy consumption and economic growth in Shaanxi Province showed an expansionary negative decoupling,all other years were weakly decoupled,i.e.economic growth was higher than the growth of energy consumption.In the next decade,if the energy consumption intensity is maintained at a low level,Shaanxi Province wllshow a strong decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth.In order to achieve the decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth in Shaanxi Province,relevant departments should formulate policies and implement them effectively,optimize the regional layout of green and low-carbon development,promote the green and low-carbon upgrading of industrial structure,and strive to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system,so as to ensure sustainable and stable economic growth while successfully achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
作者
张宝凤
Zhang Baofeng(School of Economics and Management,Yan'an University,Yan an Shaanxi 716099,China)
出处
《现代工业经济和信息化》
2023年第6期20-24,27,共6页
Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization
关键词
陕西省
能源消耗
经济增长
Tapio模型
脱钩研究
Shaanxi Province
energy consumption
economic growth
Tapio model
decoupling study
作者简介
张宝凤(1998-),女,山东潍坊人,延安大学经济与管理学院硕士在读,研究方向为能源经济与管理。
