摘要
为研究海上航标失常事件的风险耦合特性,对失常事件进行风险分类和影响因素识别,基于系统论定性分析影响因素的耦合形式,并绘制航标效能影响因素耦合机理示意图。运用N-K模型对青岛辖区航标失常数据进行定量计算,获得影响因素在不同耦合形式下的耦合风险值。结果表明:多因素耦合会增加航标失常的概率;人和航标因素参与耦合产生的风险较高;N-K模型的分析结果客观准确,符合青岛辖区航标效能发挥的实际情况。
In order to study the risk coupling characteristics of aids-to-navigation anomaly accidents,the risk classification and the identification of influencing factors of anomaly accidents are carried out,the coupling modes of influencing factors are analyzed qualitatively based on the system theory,and the coupling mechanism diagram of aids-to-navigation efficiency influencing factors is drawn.The N-K model is used to quantitatively calculate the aids-to-navigation anomaly data in Qingdao area,and the coupling risk values of influencing factors under different coupling modes are obtained.The result shows that:the multi-factor coupling can increase the probability of aids-to-navigation anomaly;the coupling of the human factor and the aids-to-navigation factor can bring higher risk;the analysis results of the N-K model are objective and accurate,which is in line with the actual situation of the aids-to-navigation efficiency in Qingdao area.
作者
宋绍珍
刘欢
高波
郑世昆
李建民
董吉友
杜育军
SONG Shaozhen;LIU Huan;GAO Bo;ZHENG Shikun;LI Jianmin;DONG Jiyou;DU Yujun(Qingdao Aids to Navigation Department,Northern Navigation Service Center,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China;Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)
出处
《上海海事大学学报》
北大核心
2023年第2期77-82,共6页
Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
关键词
航标效能
系统论
N-K模型
风险耦合
aids-to-navigation efficiency
system theory
N-K model
risk coupling
作者简介
宋绍珍(1986—),男,山东菏泽人,工程师,硕士,研究方向为海上航标管理,(E-mail)312974271@qq.com;李建民(1970—),男,吉林长春人,教授,博士,研究方向为海上交通安全,(E-mail)ljmmr@163.com。
