摘要
厚度精度是衡量冷轧带钢质量的重要指标之一,快速诊断带钢厚度异常并定位异常发生的根本原因,对提升带钢质量及生产稳定性具有非常重要的意义。为此,通过轧制机理模型确定厚度影响因素,采用多元线性回归方法构建厚度增量残差模型,对残差进行核密度估计来检测厚度异常;针对厚度异常,基于因果推断计算影响因素的因果效应,辨识出厚度异常的根本原因。实际应用结果表明,该方法能准确地诊断厚度异常和辨识异常的根本原因,与常规方法相比,其对冷连轧过程变量之间具有高度相关性的工况更为有效。
Thickness accuracy is one of the important indicators of cold-rolled strip quality.For improving strip quality and stability of production,it is of great significance to quickly diagnose the abnormal thickness and locate the root cause of thickness anomaly.The influencing factors of thickness was determined by the rolling mechanism model,and the residual model of thickness increment was constructed by the multivariable linear regression method.Then the kernel density estimation of the residuals was utilized for detecting thickness anomaly.The causal effect of influencing factors was calculated based on causal inference to identify the root cause of thickness anomaly.The results in-practice show that the proposed method can accurately diagnose thickness anomaly and identify the root cause of anomaly,and the method is more effective than conventional method for cold rolling conditions with high correlation between the variables.
作者
周军
杨荃
王晓晨
ZHOU Jun;YANG Quan;WANG Xiao-chen(Institute of Engineering Technology,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国冶金》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期94-101,共8页
China Metallurgy
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51975043)
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2020YFB1713600)。
关键词
厚度异常
根本原因分析
厚度残差
因果推断
潜在结果模型
thickness anomaly
root cause analysis
thickness residual
causal inference
potential outcomes model
作者简介
周军(1977—),男,博士生,工程师,E-mail:zhou_me@163.com。
