摘要
相比传统农业保险产品,天气指数保险具有信息透明、理赔便捷、二级市场流通性强等优点,是分散农业风险的有效手段。但农作物的受灾机理十分复杂,在其生长过程中往往受到多重灾害的共同影响,准确构建多个天气指数之间以及天气指数与农产品单位面积产量之间的关联关系模型,扩大天气指数保险的承保责任,对于减少基差风险、合理设计天气指数保险以及转移农业气象灾害风险具有重要意义。本研究基于国家气象网1995−2018年共24a逐日降水和气温数据,以陕西眉县猕猴桃为例,构建降水、气温和单位面积产量的三维嵌套Copula模型和条件混合三维Copula模型,通过误差比较,选择利用模拟精度较高的条件混合三维Copula模型模拟三者的关系,并厘定复合天气指数保险的纯费率。结果表明,在70%的保障水平下,5−9月累计降水量低于423.2mm,且平均日最高气温高于26.40℃时进行赔付,纯保险费率为10.07%。本研究探索高温干旱天气对猕猴桃单位产量损失的交叉影响,更好地阐明了高温、干旱和猕猴桃单产之间的相关关系,能够在一定程度上降低基差风险,完善农业天气指数保险体系,为复合天气指数保险产品的设计提供一种新的思路和方法,有助于天气指数保险的推广应用。
Weather index insurance with the advantages of transparent information,convenient claim and settlement strong secondary market liquidity is an effective method to diversify agricultural risks,compared with traditional agricultural insurance products.However,the disaster mechanism of crops that are often affected by multiple hazards together during their growth process is very complex.Accurately constructing the correlation relationship model among multiple weather indices and between weather index and yield per unit area of agricultural products,expanding the underwriting liability of weather index insurance are important to reduce the basis risk,reasonably design weather index insurance and transfer the risk of agricultural weather disasters.In this study,based on the precipitation and temperature data of 24 years of day-by-day from 1995 to 2018 from the national meteorological network,a three-dimensional nested Copula model and a conditional mixed three-dimensional Copula model among precipitation,temperature and yield per unit area had been constructed for kiwifruit in Meixian county,Shaanxi province.The relationship between the three variables was simulated using the conditional mixed three-dimensional Copula model with higher simulation accuracy by comparing the error and the pure rate of composite weather index insurance was determined.The results showed that the pure insurance rate was 10.07%at 70%coverage level for a payout under the conditions of cumulative precipitation below 423.2mm and average daily maximum temperature above 26.40℃from May to September.This study explored the cross-influence of high temperature and drought weather on the unit yield loss of kiwifruit and better clarified the correlation among high temperature,drought and kiwifruit yields,which could reduce the basis risk to a certain extent,improve the agricultural weather index insurance system,provide a new idea and method for the design of composite weather index insurance products,and contribute to the promotion and application of weather index insurance.
作者
王雯
陈妍
汪红梅
WANG Wen;CHEN Yan;WANG Hong-mei(School of Economics and Management,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China)
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期513-522,共10页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究重大项目子课题“陕西农业产业高质量发展水平测度与目标框架构建”(2021ZD1055)
陕西省软科学项目“后扶贫时代陕西农村生态环境治理模式及效应研究”(2021KRM051)。
作者简介
第一作者:王雯,E-mail:wangwen0301@163.com;通讯作者:汪红梅,博士,教授,研究方向为农村可持续发展,E-mail:whmeco@nwsuaf.edu.cn。
