摘要
本文基于零售商的销售努力研究了一类风险规避与模糊规避报童问题。本文运用最坏情况条件风险值(WCVa R)方法构建了决策模型,得到了零售商订货量及努力水平的最优决策,该决策可完全退化为风险中性及模糊规避型决策,并进一步刻画了风险规避及模糊规避行为对零售商决策和利润的影响。研究发现,虽然风险容忍度越低,零售商的最优订货量越低,但是对于成长性较好的企业,决策者在WCVa R模型中的“风险”及“模糊”双重规避行为并不会导致决策过度保守,甚至在市场需求分布信息不完备的情况下,该模型比模糊中性的CVa R模型有更好的绩效表现。
Due to technological and economic development,the life cycle of products is gradually shortening,and market competition is increasingly fierce.To successfully sell products,increase market demand,or expand market share,enterprises need to implement sales efforts such as advertising,discount promotions,product exhibitions,and training of sales personnel to achieve goals.However,in reality,today′s world is marked by changes unseen in a century.The complex and changeable business environment intensifies the uncertainty of market demand faced by enterprises,which leads to decision makers often wanting to avoid profit volatility(risk-averse)and eliminate the decision disturbance caused by incomplete demand distribution information(ambiguity-averse).Therefore,the sales effort and order quantity decisions under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion behavior of decision makers become critical.This paper takes the retailer in a secondary supply chain as the research object.The retailer is faced with a highly uncertain sales market,where only the mean and variance information of market demand is known.The retailer has two types of decision-making behaviors:risk and ambiguity aversion,and the retailer can increase market demand by making sales efforts.Under the premise that the wholesale price and sales price are known,the retailer must determine the optimal sales effort and order quantity before the selling season.Therefore,the main research processes of this paper are as follows:First,this paper constructs a decision-making model with the retailer′s risk aversion and ambiguity aversion behavior.The expected utility method is complex and abstract,and the mean-risk method is difficult to implement and may contradict random dominance,leading to unintuitive results.Thus,this paper takes the risk measures method to describe the risk aversion behavior of the retailer.Furthermore,the value-at-risk(VaR)criterion of the risk measures method does not have subadditivity and cannot explain the situation beyond the limit value,and the retailer have ambiguity aversion behavior when the demand information is incomplete.Therefore,this paper constructs a decision model with worst-case conditional value-at-risk(WCVaR)as the risk measurement criterion to make the optimal decision regarding the retailer′s sales effort and order quantity.The economic significance of this model can be understood as pairing sales effort with order quantity so that under the worst-case distribution,the average profit of the newsvendor(retailer)is maximum when the profit is lower than a given value.Secondly,this paper calculates the worst-case distribution and WCVaR values for the constructed model and obtains the retailer′s optimal sales effort and order quantity.According to the analytical expression of the optimal decision,this further proves that the optimal order quantity is a monotone increasing function of retailer risk tolerance.In particular,when the risk tolerance is equal to one,the conclusion of this paper degenerates to retailers′optimal decision under risk-neutral and ambiguity aversion behavior.Lastly,through numerical simulation,it verifies and analyzes the main conclusions of this paper.On the one hand,numerical simulation conducts parameter perturbation analysis and investigates the influence of enterprise growth and risk tolerance on the retailer′s optimal decision and profit,revealing the deeper management significance of the retailer′s risk and ambiguity aversion behavior.On the other hand,by comparing the WCVaR model and the CVaR model under different parameters and distributions,the study finds that although the WCVaR model includes two types of conservative behavior of risk and ambiguity aversion,the decision-making results of the model are not always conservative.Especially in the case of incomplete demand information,the WCVaR model has good performance.This paper includes the following three research results:First,this paper obtains the optimal decisions of risk-and ambiguityaverse retailer regarding order quantity and sales effort.The results show that the improvement in enterprise growth,gross profit rate,or risk tolerance can all contribute to an increase in order quantity and profit level,among which enterprise growth has the greatest impact on the level of enterprise profitability.Second,this paper finds that the sales effort model based on the WCVaR criterion does not lead to conservative decision making when the retailer has high enterprise growth and may even exceed the model′s performance with ambiguity-neutral behavior when the gross profit rate is high.Third,in the case of incomplete market demand information,the WCVaR model has stronger applicability.Especially when the decision maker cannot accurately predict the market demand information,the performance of the WCVaR model is much better than that of the CVaR model,which must specify the specific demand distribution.These findings provide theoretical guidance for retailers to implement expansion strategies and inventory management decisions.These findings also allow retailers to enhance the risk adaptability of enterprises in a more complex environment.
作者
邓杰
王宇
DENG Jie;WANG Yu(School of Accountancy,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China;School of Management,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期118-128,共11页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(19YJC630026)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71872021)
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(19SKGH131)。
作者简介
通讯作者:邓杰(1989-),男,四川南充人,重庆工商大学会计学院讲师、硕士生导师,研究方向:供应链金融、物流与供应链管理。
