摘要
尼罗河水资源争端由来已久,埃塞俄比亚、埃及和苏丹三国围绕复兴大坝的争端和博弈长期呈现激烈态势,三方直接谈判持续十年未果。埃及为维护尼罗河霸主地位,坚决捍卫历史水权;埃塞俄比亚为探寻国家复兴之路,坚持开发利用境内水资源的绝对权利;而苏丹为追求利益最大化,立场摇摆不定。此外,争端三国各自面临国内博弈局面。本文运用双层博弈理论的分析框架,以复兴大坝争端为研究对象,深入分析争端三国在国际和国内两个层面的博弈格局,试图提出尼罗河水资源“去博弈化”的解决机制。首先,争端三国需在国内层面形成统一立场,以在国际谈判中获得更大的议价优势;其次,三国需争取在国际层面以合作的方式扩大国际谈判获胜的重合范围,以此从两个博弈层面的协调来促进复兴大坝谈判达成三方协议,避免尼罗河水资源冲突。
In East Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD) has sparked a long-running geopolitical dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, which has been locked in negotiations for a decade. In order to maintain the dominant position of the Nile, Egypt resolutely defended the historical water rights;Ethiopia has insisted on the absolute right to exploit and utilize its water resources, in order to explore the road to national rejuvenation. On the other hand, Sudan has changed positions for its pursuit of maximization. In addition, the three countries also face different internal game situations. Taking the Two-Level Game theory as the analysis framework and the GERD dispute as the research object, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the international and domestic game patterns for the three countries, and tries to propose a solution mechanism for the ‘degamification’ of Nile water resources. Firstly, the three countries in dispute need to form a unified position at the domestic level, so as to obtain a greater bargaining advantage in international negotiations. Secondly, the three countries need to cooperate to expand the overlapping scope of the international negotiations, thus to promote the negotiations to reach a tripartite agreement and avoid the conflict of Nile water resources.
作者
苏楚婷
SU Chuting(Arabic Department,School of Foreign Language,Nankai University)
出处
《阿拉伯世界研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第1期120-138,160,共20页
Arab World Studies
基金
2021年南开大学人文社会科学类研究项目青年启动项目“苏丹在复兴大坝争端中立场变化的研究”(63212032)的阶段性成果。
关键词
双层博弈
复兴大坝争端
埃塞俄比亚
埃及
苏丹
Two-Level Game Theory
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Dispute
Ethiopia
Egypt
Sudan
作者简介
苏楚婷,博士,南开大学外国语学院阿拉伯语系讲师(天津300100)。
