摘要
COVID-19疫情的暴发对医疗机构、社会和经济带来了前所未有的挑战,因此有必要了解影响该疾病传播的潜在因素。首先,采用统计描述获取COVID-19日新增病例数和气候因素的时空分布特征。然后,基于纵向数据的Poisson回归模型和广义估计方程(GEE),研究了COVID-19病例数与气候因素、控制措施和人口密度之间的关系。结果表明,影响COVID-19疫情的因素是多方面的,控制措施对COVID-19疫情的影响最为显著,其次是平均温度、平均相对湿度、平均露点、气候因素的长期趋势和季节变化。在不同的时滞水平下,平均温度与平均相对湿度、平均温度与平均风速、平均温度与平均大气压强之间的交互作用具有统计显著性,这进一步说明,多种因素的相互作用引起COVID-19疫情的暴发。研究结果可为疫情防控部门制定有效的、强有力的管控措施提供一定的依据。
As COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for healthcare organizations,societies and economies,there is an increasing necessity to understand the factors underlying the spread of the disease.The statistical descriptions are employed to address spatial-temporal distribution characteristic of the COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors.Further,ten candidate Poisson regression models were formulated to explore the relationship among COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors,control measures and population density by generalized estimating equation(GEE)based on longitudinal data.The main results revealed that the impact factors for the COVID-19 prevalence are manifold,and control measures have the most significant impact on COVID-19 prevalence,followed by the effect of average temperature,average relative humidity,average dew point,long-term trend and seasonal changes of meteorogical factors.And also,the interaction effects between average temperature and average relative humidity,average temperature and average wind speed,average temperature and average pressure are statistically significant at the different lag level.This further shows that the interaction of multiple factors could result in COVID-19 outbreak,and thus providing some bases for the epidemic prevention and control departments to enact effective and powerful management measures.
作者
闫琴玲
刘培宇
YAN Qinling;LIU Peiyu(School of Science,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《浙江大学学报（理学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期144-152,共9页
Journal of Zhejiang University（Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(12001058)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2021JQ-215)
陕西省高校科协青年人才托举计划资助项目(20210511).
作者简介
闫琴玲(1988-),ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0927-9197,女,博士研究生,讲师,主要从事生物统计、生物数学研究,E-mail:yanqinling1222@chd.edu.cn.
