贸易政策不确定性的进出口时变效应研究——兼论企业家信心的传导路径被引量：7

Research on Time-Varying Effects of Import and Export with Trade Policy Uncertainty——A Discussion on the Transmission Path of Entrepreneur Confidence

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摘要本文首先刻画贸易政策不确定性与企业家信心和进出口贸易之间关联关系的宏观表象,进一步通过SV-TVP-FAVAR模型量化分析贸易政策不确定性的进出口贸易效应,并基于直接效应和间接效应双重视角检验贸易政策不确定性进出口贸易效应是否存在企业家信心传导路径。研究结果表明:加入世界贸易组织以来,中国贸易政策不确定性指数既有低位盘整趋势,又有突发冲击下的剧烈波动,贸易政策不确定性与企业家信心和进出口贸易之间存在反向背离的联动关系。直接效应和间接效应检验证实,贸易政策不确定性进出口贸易效应存在企业家信心传导路径,贸易政策不确定性大多呈现进出口贸易负向冲击特征,长短期内进出口贸易响应状态存在差异。 Trade policy uncertainty can affect export and import trade through the entrepreneurial confidence path, with a dynamic impact on a country′s economic growth rate and quality of economic development.This article first describes the macroscopic appearance of the correlation between trade policy uncertainty and entrepreneur confidence, as well as import and export trade. Furthermore, this paper uses the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the import and export effects of trade policy uncertainty in a quantitative way. It examines the path of entrepreneurial confidence in the impact of trade policy uncertainty on import and export trade based on the “dual”perspective of direct and indirect effects.The results show that since accession to WTO, China′s trade policy uncertainty has both a long-term low consolidation trend and short-term violent fluctuations under sudden shocks. There is a reverse “divergence” relationship between trade policy uncertainty and entrepreneur confidence, as well as import and export trade. The direct and indirect effect tests confirm that there are entrepreneur confidence paths in the import and export trade effects with trade policy uncertainty. Most trade policy uncertainties present adverse shocks on import and export trade. There are heterogeneous differences in the response status of enterprises′ import and export trade in the short and long term.This paper argues that the government should take a rational view of the macro “divergence” between trade policy uncertainty and entrepreneurial confidence, thus correctly understanding the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on import and export trade. With the internal and external trade policy uncertainty, the government should promptly introduce “countercyclical” regulatory policies appropriate to the status quo of the country′s economic development and make full use of policy commitments, prospective guidance, and other expectation management tools for better regulation effect.

作者隋建利张龙申瑛琦 Sui Jianli;Zhang Long;Shen Yingqi(School of Business and Management,Jilin University;Quantitative Research Center of Economics,Jilin University)

机构地区吉林大学商学与管理学院吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出处《国际金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第2期3-13,共11页 Studies of International Finance

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(21&ZD073) 吉林省教育厅科学研究项目“货币政策调控取向、多重预期与宏观调控跨周期设计研究”(JJKH20220135SK)资助。

关键词贸易政策不确定性企业家信心进出口贸易经验事实 Trade Policy Uncertainty Entrepreneur Confidence Import and Export Trade Empirical Evidence

分类号 F720 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介隋建利,经济学博士,吉林大学商学与管理学院副院长,吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授,博士生导师;通讯作者:张龙,经济学博士,吉林大学商学与管理学院助理研究员,鼎新学者博士后;申瑛琦,吉林大学商学与管理学院博士研究生。